Archive for the ‘Tropical Storm’ Category

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 21 October 2018, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – The two storms in the Eastern Pacific will threaten Mexico. Heavy rains for far southern Spain.  More heavy rains for Thailand.

 

Tropical Severe Weather –

Western Pacific – Tropical Depression #31 has formed and the storm is expected to strengthen while tracking to the northwest. The northern Marianas Islands could be threatened later this week.

 

Eastern Pacific – Two new storms for this morning:

Tropical Storm Vicente – Vicente continues moving west-southwestward well offshore the coast of southern Mexico. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente.

 

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 96.8 West or about 90 mi…150 km SSW of Puerto Angel Mexico and about 100 mi…160 km SSW of Puerto Escondido Mexico. Vicente is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the west is expected by this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Monday evening.  On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday night.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

 

Watches and warnings

 

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

Hazards affecting land

 

RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches near the coast of southern Mexico.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.

 

Hurricane Willa – Willa continues to quickly strengthen, hurricane and tropical storm watches issued for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico.

 

Key Messages:

  1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

 

 

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 106.7 West or about 270 mi…435 km SSW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico. Willa is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected by tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the coast of southwestern coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday morning.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

 

Watches and warnings

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and a Tropical Storm Watch from Playa Perula northward to south of San Blas.

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* San Blas to Mazatlan

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Playa Perula to San Blas

 

Hazards affecting land

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

 

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday.

 

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

 

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4-inch amounts across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.   This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

 

SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Discussion – oiVicente and Willa, which is expected to become a major hurricane, will combine to bring a one-two tropical punch to southwestern and western Mexico this week. The eastern Pacific Ocean is active with both Tropical Storm Vicente and newly strengthened Hurricane Willa churning south of Mexico.

Even more strengthening is expected from Willa in the coming days. Willa will continue moving into an environment conducive for rapid strengthening, and can become a major hurricane by midweek.

While some strengthening is expected from Vicente, the environment will limit the ability for the storm to strengthen too much. Willa is likely to remain much stronger than Vicente, which will disrupt Vicente enough to keep it from reaching hurricane status.

Downpours began to graze southern Mexican coastlines Saturday night. Downpours continuing into Monday could trigger both localized flash flooding and mudslides. Threats to lives and property are expected to ramp up across southwestern and western Mexico as both Vicente and Willa converge on the region.

The regions of Mexico most at risk would be those near Willa’s landfall. Willa is expected to make landfall on Tuesday night or Wednesday in Nayarit or southern Sinaloa.

As Willa approaches the coast and begins to interact with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico, slight weakening is expected. However, Willa could make landfall as a potent Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane, with winds up to 130 km/h (81 mph).

Onshore winds will also be strong enough to direct the ocean water, bringing the risk of storm surge to those on the southern edge of the hurricane’s eye.

The more widespread impact will be tropical rainfall, which can lead to flooding and mudslides, even away from the coast. This one-two tropical punch is expected to bring a widespread threat of flooding rain and mudslides across western and southwestern Mexico. Rainfall totals from Sinaloa to Jalisco, Colima and coastal Michoacán can average 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) with maximum amounts of 300 mm (12 inches).

Residents of these states are urged to review hurricane preparation tips and begin stocking up on nonperishable food, water, medicines and supplies needed to protect property from damage. Anyone living in areas prone to flooding rain, mudslides or storm surge flooding in southwestern or western Mexico should review evacuation routes and be ready to leave if ordered by local officials. Willa has the potential to leave a portion of these areas without power for days after landfall.

Southern Baja California Sur is likely to only have a glancing blow from Willa. Seas and rip currents will become increasingly rough into Tuesday, and some outer rain bands could bring some isolated downpours. After landfall, Willa may spread heavy rain and the risk for flooding across central Mexico and into the southern United States later in the week and into next weekend.

 

North America Severe Weather

 

US / Canada Synopsis: Heavy rainfall is expected in extreme southern Texas and parts of the Hawaiian Islands into Monday. Flash-flood watches are effect for both areas. Temperatures from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains and through much of the eastern U.S. are expected to be below to well below average. Air stagnation concerns are likely across interior portions of the Northwest through Monday.

 

NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.

 

Texas and the Gulf Coast region – More Heavy Rains: Following a retreat of moisture, more rain will spread across Texas this week, and eventually reach areas along the Florida Gulf Coast still recovering from Hurricane Michael. Over the recent week, portions of central Texas received one- to three-month’s worth of rain. A number of locations, including Dallas and San Antonio, have already achieved their wettest autumn on record.

The greatest risk for torrential downpours will settle southward and westward due to a press of dry and cool air from the north on Sunday, a welcome break for many in the Lone Star State. However, Texas rivers and lakes hit by flooding will remain high.

As the downpours press southward, it is possible that a portion of the Rio Grande Valley, including Deep South Texas, may be at risk for some flooding problems. From 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast in the lower Rio Grande Valley with isolated amounts of 6 inches into Monday.

Thus far, the lower Rio Grande Valley has been spared the heaviest rainfall and flooding problems. People in this region should be prepared for flash and urban flooding Sunday into Monday.

The expansion of more wet weather is expected throughout the week as two tropical systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean, Willa and Vicente, will help pump more moisture into the South Central and Southeastern states this week. However, it is Willa, the stronger of the two, that is likely to retain some sort of identity after crossing Mexico and reaching the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical rainstorm.

Rainfall will start off expanding across Southern Texas early this week. Any downpours will increase the risk for flash flooding and can cause travel disruptions.

As these tropical systems and their heavy rainfall move inland, more and more tropical moisture will be drawn up from Mexico.

As the core of Willa moves into north-central Mexico, all of the heavy rain will come with it, making for a wet middle of the week for New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. The heaviest rain is expected to remain over Texas, unfortunately hitting the same areas across central, southern and eastern Texas that have already been pummeled by rain over the last 10 days.

Moderate to heavy rain can trigger new flash flooding or further swell already swollen rivers and reservoirs in Texas. Officials may be forced to keep flood gates open at area dams. Not only could more rain fall on some saturated and flooded areas of Texas, but it could also reach locations in northern Florida and Georgia.

While dry weather will persist for much of this region into Monday, the moisture will begin to shift eastward as early as Tuesday along the Florida Gulf Coast. Rounds of rain will be a hindrance to those still in the early stages of cleanup operations following Michael.

 

 

Canada Newfoundland – Rain, at times heavy, is expected. Rain, heavy at times, will continue today and tonight. Total rainfall amounts between 30 and 60 mm are expected by the time the rain tapers off on Monday morning. Some higher amounts are possible, especially over westernmost sections from Goobies to Whitbourne. People traveling in the area are advised to check road reports for traffic disruptions before departing. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

 

International Severe Weather

 

Caribbean / Central / South America Widespread severe weather is not expected.

 

EMEAFor Europe, today and Monday – While nearly all of Europe has quiet weather, far southern Spain still has a Flood Warning in effect Malaga through this afternoon.  Expect moderate to isolated heavy rains through this afternoon.

For Monday, the weather system bringing rains to Spain will move to Italy, so central and southern Italy can expect moderate to isolated heavy rains on Monday

 

Asia / Pacific RimSouthern Indochina & Thailand – Thunderstorms with heavy rains:

At 10.00 a.m. LST on 21 October, the active low pressure cell downgrade form tropical depression covers Gulf of Martaban. Isolated torrential downpours in the western of North and the upper South. People should beware of the sever conditions. The affected areas are as follows:

North: Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Lampang, Sukhothai, Kamphanphet and Tak.

Central: Nakhon Sawan, Chai Nat, Uthai Thani, Kanchanaburi, Suphan Buri, Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Songkhram and Samut Sakhon.

South: Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan and Ranong.

 

U.S. State Department Travel Advisories for your intended destination. Click here for a complete list, or see the world at a glance on our color-coded map.

 

Flu Activity http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

 

The Internet Traffic Report: http://www.internettrafficreport.com/

 

The Swinden Group, LLC

One World – One Contact –Many Resources

Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting

Weather Risk Management