Archive for the ‘Tropical Cyclone’ Category

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 21 June 2017, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – The big weather maker is TS Cindy bringing heavy rains to the southern U.S. Heavy rains for parts of China and Thailand.



Tropical Severe Weather

Gulf of Mexico – US – Tropical Storm Cindy: Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Cindy’s center, suggesting that the system has at least some subtropical characteristics. The main threat from Cindy will be the heavy rainfall that could produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast


At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 92.2 West or about 165 miles…265 km SSW of Morgan City, Louisiana and about 200 miles…325 km SE of Galveston, Texas. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected later today and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday.


Watches & Warnings


A Tropical Storm Warning (red) is in effect for…

* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border

* Metropolitan New Orleans

* Lake Pontchartrain


Flash Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect from eastern Texas to north central Georgia.


Hazards affecting land

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.


Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible.


WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning area through early Thursday.


STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana.


Discussion – Tropical Storm Cindy, over the Gulf of Mexico, will drift toward the United States with flooding rainfall, severe thunderstorms and rip currents this week. After little movement on Tuesday, Cindy has begun tracking to the northwest. Strong winds aloft are shearing the storm. The winds are causing the swath of heaviest rainfall to focus on the northeastern side of the storm.

Storm to make landfall in US

A gradual turn to the north is expected Wednesday night. Landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana is likely early Thursday.

Late this week and this weekend, the storm is likely to turn to the northeast and then the east over the interior southern United States. Interests should not just focus on the path or window of movement with the storm as heavy rainfall will extend well out from the center, especially to the east and north of the track.

Southern US at risk for major flooding

Regardless of the official classification and exact path, the greatest impacts from the storm will be torrential rainfall and the risk of major flooding in the Deep South and other parts of the eastern United States. Locally heavy rain has been falling on the South well in advance of Cindy. Initially, areas along the Interstate-10 corridor along a 600-mile-long swath from the Louisiana coast to part of the Florida west coast will experience the heaviest rainfall and greatest risk of flooding. As of early Wednesday morning, over 3 inches of rain has fallen from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle with flooding already occurring in some areas.


On Tuesday, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a statewide state of emergency in preparation for the severe weather and flash flooding.

Rainfall of 6-12 inches is likely over part of the central Gulf Coast states with locally higher amounts of 15-20 inches possible, due to the slow-moving nature of the storm. Cities that could experience flooding problems from the storm include Tallahassee, Florida; Mobile, Alabama; Biloxi, Mississippi; and New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, Louisiana.

As the storm approaches land, heavy rain with isolated flooding is likely to wrap westward across part of northeastern Texas, including part of the Houston area. Should the storm jog farther west than anticipated, then flooding rainfall could extend farther down along the Texas coast. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding directly associated with the storm are also likely to extend northward to I-40 late this week.

After the storm moves inland, it may be picked up by a non-tropical system and pulled across parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys and onward across the southern Appalachians this weekend.

Some areas over the interior Southeast states may experience life-threatening flooding as a result.

Tornadoes may be spawned by storm

Locally gusty winds with and without thunder could down tree limbs and lead to sporadic power outages near the Gulf coast. Interests along the upper Gulf coast will also need to be vigilant for the risk of a few tornadoes and waterspouts through Thursday.


North America Severe Weather


US / Canada Synopsis: Other than Cindy drenching parts of the Deep South & Gulf Coast, severe thunderstorms across the center of the country and hot weather out west.


Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – There is an SLIGHT RISK with the development of severe thunderstorms as severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern High Plains to the north-central states for Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the greatest severe thunderstorm potential from parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles northeastward to Minnesota and Wisconsin. Also, a tornado risk will exist in portions of the north-central Gulf Coast region.


United States – Severe Heat Wave Forecast in Arizona, Nevada, and California Though June 21: A major, pre-monsoon heat wave will occur in the southwestern US June 17-21. A large area of high pressure will build over Arizona and remain nearly stationary for days, creating a heat dome over the region and deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward toward Canada and the north-central US.

Excessive heat warnings have been issued for the Central Valley and much of Southern California; southern Nevada; and central, southern, and western Arizona. Heat advisories are also in effect for many other parts of California excluding some areas along the Pacific Coast, far northern counties, and higher elevations in the southern Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. Large parts of southern and east-central Utah are under excessive heat watches. Very high temperatures can also be expected in interior areas of Baja California and Sonora states in Mexico, including cities of Mexicali, Nogales, Cananea, and Hermosillo. Record high temperatures are possible in some areas.

In California, triple-digit temperatures are expected in areas covered by excessive heat warnings from the Mexican border northward as far as Redding – an area that includes that includes the cities of Palm Springs, San Bernardino, Riverside, Bakersfield, Fresno, Merced, Modesto, Stockton, Sacramento, and Chico. Unusually hot weather is likely in San Jose and areas near Oakland, but cold water will help moderate temperatures along the Pacific Coast and the immediate shores of San Francisco Bay.

Conditions for wildfire growth will be favorable during the extended period of oppressive heat and low humidity. New spot fires should be relatively easy to contain because gusty winds are unlikely – except at higher elevations in Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles counties in Southern California. Wildfires could potentially cause localized power outages if transmission equipment is destroyed.  Soaring temperatures will increase snowmelt, and minor flooding is possible along waterways fed by mountain streams and creeks. Flood advisories have been issued for Mono County in California and downstream areas in the Walker River basin in Nevada. Major disruptions are unlikely, but water levels will rise on the East and West Walker rivers. Moderate flooding is likely on the West Walker River near Coleville, California, by June 20, and some agricultural fields, pastureland, and rural roads could be inundated. US 395 should remain passable.

Metro Forecasts:

Los Angeles: Heat Advisory (1100 PDT June 20-2100 PDT June 21) Hot and dry conditions are expected in the Los Angeles through at least June 21. Temperatures will peak in the metropolitan area on June 20-21, when daytime highs will probably reach 90-95 F (32.2-35 C) in a number of locations, including Downtown Los Angeles, Hollywood, Malibu, Santa Monica, and Long Beach. A heat advisory is also in effect for the Santa Clarita and San Fernando valleys from 1100 PDT June 19-2100 PDT June 21. Temperatures could climb as high as 106 F (41.1 C) in Santa Clarita, Northridge, Burbank, Universal City, and other communities in the two valleys during this period.

Temperatures are expected to be 12-18 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in interior areas of Los Angeles County and Riverside and San Bernardino counties during the heat wave. Temperatures could exceed 110 F (43.3 C) in the Inland Empire and the Antelope Valley June 19-21. Onshore winds will produce gusty conditions and enhanced fire danger in the Los Angeles County mountains, especially during the evenings on June 17-19.

Las Vegas: Excessive Heat Warning (1100 PDT June 17-2100 PDT June 21). Daytime highs are expected to climb to over 110 F (43.3 C) in the Las Vegas Valley June 18-20. Temperatures may approach 120 F (48.9 C) along the Colorado River between Laughlin and Lake Havasu, Arizona, June 18-21.

Phoenix: Excessive Heat Warning (1000 MST June 17-2000 MST June 21) Temperatures are forecast to exceed 105 F (40.6 C) through June 21. Daytime highs may reach 120 F (48.9 C) in Phoenix and surrounding areas in south-central Arizona on June 19-20. Light winds are forecast through much of the period, but fire danger will increase when breezier conditions develop on June 21.


Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected.


International Severe Weather


Caribbean / Central / South America – From Colombia to Honduras – Heavy rains over Central America will bring the threat of flash flooding as storms move slowly westward.


EMEA For Today and Thursday – Hot weather across for most of France, strong thunderstorms for the Alps region.


Asia / Pacific Rim – China – Heavy rain to rainstorm: From June 21 to 22, there will be heavy rain to rainstorm in northern and eastern Guangxi, northern and eastern coast of Guangdong, central-northern and southwestern Jiangxi, northern Fujian, Zhejiang and southern Anhui. Extreme rainstorm will hit northeastern Jiangxi and western Zhejiang. Central-western Hebei, central-southern Shanxi, northern and southwestern Henan will see heavy rain and severe convective weather with maximum hourly raininess of 20-50mm.


Thailand – Monsoonal Rains: The southwest monsoon prevails across the Andaman Sea and Thailand will stronger. More rain and isolated heavy rain is likely in the North, the Central, the East and the South. During 23-27 June, People in the North, the Central, the East and the South should beware of heavy rainfall conditions.


New Zealand – Period of heavy rain for northland and Coromandel Peninsula. Possible severe northeast gales for northland and Auckland as a low and associated front over the north Tasman Sea are slowly approaching the north of the country tonight. The low should lie to the west of the upper North Island tomorrow (Thursday), with its associated front crossing over the North Island during Thursday and early Friday. The front is preceded by a strong moist northeasterly flow, and is expected to bring a period of northeast gales and rain to northern New Zealand.

This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall amounts will approach short duration warning levels (eg. 70mm in 12 hours, or 80mm in 15 hours) in the following areas…

NORTHLAND From tonight to late Thursday morning. (Note, further scattered heavy showers are likely during Thursday afternoon and evening.)

COROMANDEL PENINSULA From early Thursday morning to Thursday evening.

This WATCH also covers the possibility of severe northeast gales in the following areas…

NORTHLAND Through to mid-morning Thursday.

AUCKLAND From midnight tonight to early Thursday afternoon.


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