Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 17 June 2019, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

World Synopsis – Severe thunderstorms continue for parts of the U.S. along with heavy rains. Monsoonal rains continue for parts of Asia


Tropical Severe Weather –

There are no threatening systems at this time.

Western Pacific – The tropics may activate in the western Pacific Ocean beginning late next week, with Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands being put on alert for potential impacts.

Meteorologists are monitoring an area between Micronesia and the Marshall Islands as the breeding ground for the basin’s next possible tropical depression or storm.

Warm water and weak wind shear in this corridor may help a cluster of showers and thunderstorms grow and eventually develop into an organized low pressure area. The time frame for this potential development would be between Thursday, June 20 and Tuesday, June 25.

The West Pacific’s next tropical storm or typhoon will be named Sepat.

Should this system develop into an organized tropical system, it would likely be steered to the northwest and could eventually bring some impacts to Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands sometime during the week of June 24.

Even if a full-fledged tropical system does not develop, these islands can face an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity during the latter part of June.

North America Severe Weather


US / Canada Synopsis: The threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely from the central and southern Plains into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic early this week. A couple of slow moving systems will track west to east, while a plume of moisture focuses near a stalled front. Some of the thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and large hail, while flood watches extend from MO/IL to DE/NJ.



NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – There is a SLIGHT RISK with the development of severe thunderstorms over central / southern High Plains and lower Mid-Atlantic state. Strong to severe storms capable of wind or hail are expected across parts of the Mid Atlantic this afternoon, and across the central and   southern High Plains from late afternoon through evening.


From the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic – Flash Flood Watches remain in effect as a series of storms will produce rounds of drenching rain, torrential downpours and thunderstorms over roughly the same swath from the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic coast this week.

The pattern could become worse than just disrupting outdoor activities and slowing travel. Lives and property may be at risk where downpours repeat and/or rain persists.

Through Thursday, the area from Kentucky and southern Illinois through Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware will receive a general 2-4 inches of rain. An total amount of 8 inches is anticipated.
Most of the large rivers in the region should be able to handle this amount of rain over an extended period with a minor to moderate rise. However, hourly rainfall may exceed an inch and could be as high as 3 inches in extreme cases.

Some small streams will rapidly rise and overflow their banks. More than one flooding event can occur along particular small streams this week. The periodic flooding of streets and poor-drainage areas in urban locations is likely.

Expect some of the secondary rivers to rise significantly with the potential for flooding in unprotected areas.

A lull in the heavy rainfall may develop on Wednesday. However, the risk is likely to increase, along with the severe weather threat in part of the region on Thursday.

In the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, Indianapolis received close to 4 inches of rain, with nearly 3.50 inches falling on Cincinnati.

What is causing the wet pattern and how warm might it get?

The wet weather pattern is being caused by a nearly stationary frontal zone. Storms will move from west to east along the frontal zone and cause it to meander a couple of hundred miles or so to the north and south through Friday.

North of the frontal zone, alternating episodes of rain and breaks of dry weather and sunshine are in store. Temperatures can rebound well into the 70s F during the afternoon hours.
Within the several-hundred-mile north-south zone along the front, the heaviest and longest-lasting rain will fall with the greatest risk of flooding. Within this zone, where clouds remain all day and/or during rainy episodes, temperatures will be mainly in the 60s. South of the frontal zone, warm and humid conditions are forecast. Highs in this zone will be mainly in the 80s. However, even in the warm and humid air, an occasional shower or heavy, gusty thunderstorm is likely.

How long may the wet weather last?

From Wednesday night to Friday, as a stronger storm moves eastward along the frontal zone, it may be enough to break the atmospheric deadlock and allow some drier air to flow southward over areas receiving the bulk of the rain.

As this caboose in the train of storms moves along, drenching rain is likely to spread farther north than most days this week. This means that areas in upstate New York and northern New England are likely to get drenched prior to the end of the week.

Thursday could bring a significant threat for severe thunderstorms as well as flash flooding in part of the region. The odds are against totally rain-free conditions despite a slight change in the weather pattern this weekend.


Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected.


International Severe Weather


Caribbean / Central / South America Colombia – Strong thunderstorms with moderate to isolated heavy rains will once again roll in from the Pacific and drench western Colombia triggering flash flooding and mudslide through at least Tuesday.


Argentina / Uruguay – Persistent thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash flooding to most of Uruguay and extending into neighboring Buenos Aires for the next couple of days.


‘Massive failure’ leaves Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay with no power, utility says – looks like much of the power has been restored.

EMEAFor Europe, today through Tuesday: Much of Europe will experience severe free weather for the next couple of days.


Central AfricaHeavy Rains: Continued moderate to heavy thunderstorms from Ethiopia & Somalia and extending to further to the west coast and Ivory Coast.  Anticipate flash flooding and transportation disruptions.


Asia / Pacific RimSouthern China – Moderate to heavy rains continue for eastern Hubei, northern and western Hunan, northern Jiangxi, central-southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, southern Guizhou, and central-northern Guangxi will be exposed to heavy rain to rainstorm. In eastern Hubei, southwestern Anhui, northeastern Hunan, southeastern Guizhou, and northern Guangxi, there will be (100-120mm) heavy downpour.

The Mei-yu front is a semi-stationary boundary that is draped across southeastern Asia from late spring through the summer and is notorious for triggering torrential rainfall. Normally, this front is located farther to the north this time of year, approaching the Yangtze River Valley. Even when the front is in its normal position, downpours would still occur across southern China, just not at the same frequency as what has been inundating the region recently. The Mei-yu front will continue to advance to the north much slower than normal.

A total of 416.6 mm (16.40 inches) of rain inundated Guilin, located in northern Guangxi Province, from June 6 to 11.

Most of southeastern China may welcome much-needed drier weather Friday and Saturday before downpours quickly return Sunday and Monday (local time).

Bouts of heavy rain can continue to target the region through the remainder of the month, exacerbating the flooding and putting more lives and property at risk.

Places near the coast may notice a decrease in the downpours later in the month, but we do not see that drying trend spreading to interior parts of Guangxi and Guangdong provinces and northward to Guizhou, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces this June.

On the other hand, places around the Yangtze River will stay drier than normal.

The front may not lift northward and allow the East Asia monsoon to commence in these areas until early July. Until that time, below-normal rainfall and surges of heat can lead to building drought and affect the region’s soybeans, wheat and corn crops.


Thailand – More Monsoonal Rains: The monsoon trough lies across Myanmar, Laos and the upper Vietnam while the strong southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea and Thailand. More rain is expected in the country with isolated heavy to very heavy rain in the Northeast and the East. People in the risk areas should beware of heavy rains and fresh flood during 1-2 days.


Myanmar – Monsoonal Rains will bring the threat of flooding along the coastal regions of Myanmar for the next several days.


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