Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 13 September 2017, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

World Synopsis – A new tropical depression off of Mexico will bring heavy rains to the Rivera, over in Asia two tropical cyclones will bring storm weather to the region. Parts of Europe will also see rain and winds.

 

Tropical Severe Weather –

 

 

Philippine Sea – Typhoon Talim: A strengthening tropical system will pivot in the East China Sea and track towards Japan through weekend. Talim, which became a typhoon earlier this week, swept just to the eastern Taiwan, bringing just a few higher gusts and showers to the island.

Talim is currently a typhoon about 270 km (165 miles) southwest of Kadena, Japan, with winds reaching 139 km/h (86 mph), equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Breezy conditions and outer rainbands from Talim will continue for northern Taiwan, including Taipei, into early Thursday as the system passes east of the Island.

Further intensification is expected as Talim tracks to the northward away from Taiwan and into the warm waters of the East China Sea as favorable environmental conditions along the path of Talim will allow the typhoon to become very intense into the weekend

Eastern China will receive a glancing blow from Talim as it pushes through the East China Sea towards the island of Kyushu, Japan. While some bands of heavy rain, bringing as much as 75 mm (3 inches) to some areas, and wind gusts up to 80 km/h (50 mph) can still reach the coasts of Zhejiang and Fujian of China, the worst effects will be over the open water towards the center of Talim.

Rough seas are expected around Talim over the next few days as the system stirs the East China Sea. Shipping interests in the area will need to reroute around the storm.

Given the current forecast track, the most significant impacts from Talim are expected to be across southern Japan. On Friday, Talim will get picked up by a front moving into Japan, likely steering it into Japan over the weekend. This would deliver a severe blow of wind and rain to Kyushu, Shikoku and parts of Honshu. In terms of wind, Talim is forecast to approach Kyushu as typhoon with winds equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic. This means sustained winds of at least 178 km/h (110 mph) will be around the eye of the storm.

Luckily, Talim will weaken quickly once interacting with the mountainous terrain over southern Japan. Despite weakening, Talim will still bring a dose of heavy, tropical rainfall. The fast movement of the storm across Japan will help to limit significant flooding, but in excess of 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in some areas could still lead to life-threatening flash flooding.

Residents will need to watch out for mudslides which could be triggered by the heavy rain. The heavy rainfall will make it easier for trees to toppled over in the gusty wind and could create road washouts that would lead to travel disruptions well after the storm leaves the area.

Talim will continue to move northeastward into Monday, becoming weaker as it moves over the rough terrain of Japan. As Talim moves through Japan Sunday and Monday, it will become less tropical in nature as it becomes absorbed by the front. This will bringing a good soaking of rain to central and northern islands of Japan.

 

South China Sea – Tropical Storm Doksuri remains on track to make landfall over northern Vietnam on Friday evening and then track into Cambodia. Heavy rains and coastal flooding will be the main threats for southern Hainan Island, China along with northern and central Vietnam.  Damaging winds can also be expected near the center of the storm.

 

 

 

Western AtlanticHurricane Jose: Looks like Jose will slowly track to the west then curve to the northeast.  For now, looks like Bermuda will not have any significant impacts, but that could change, so interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jose.

 

Eastern Pacific – Mexico – Tropical Depression #16: Just off the coast of Mexico with very heavy rains are anticipated. While the storm is expected to remain a depression, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.

 

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.7 West or about 130 mi…205 km WSW of Acapulco, Mexico and about 105 mi…165 km S of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion with a turn to the northeast is expected during the next day or two.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the depression moves inland. Observations from the Mexican Navy indicate that strong gusty winds are already occurring along the coast within the tropical storm watch area.

 

Watches & Warnings

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado

 

Hazards affecting land

 

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today.

 

North America Severe Weather

 

US / Canada Synopsis: Post-tropical cyclone Irma will continue to weaken and lift northwestward through Wednesday. Moderate to locally heavy rain in the Mid-South and Southeast will lift into the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic by Wednesday. Some of the heavier rainfall may produce flash flooding. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in the Middle Atlantic.

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook for today and tonight – Widespread severe weather is not expected for the next several days.

 

Southwestern Montana Winter storm watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday morning above 6000 feet as a dramatic change in the weather is on the way as a very cold and wet weather system drives the snow level down to near 6000 feet overnight Thursday into Friday morning along with temperatures plummeting 30 to 50 degrees colder compared to Tuesday (today). Slushy snow accumulations are expected on the mountainous terrain, trails and dirt roads which may negatively affect recreation or travel. Additionally, the transition from very cold rain to snow and the dramatic change to colder weather will heighten the risk of hypothermia to those who are not well equipped or prepared for early winter weather conditions.

 

In addition, a mix of smoke and variable visibility throughout the higher terrain will abruptly change to low visibility and widespread terrain obscurations. Again, it must be emphasized, this is a HUGE change from the current warm summer recreational conditions.

 

Snow accumulations: 6000 to 7000 feet: 1 to 3 inches. Above 7000 feet: 3 to 6 inches are possible…especially over the highest peaks.

 

Locations impacted include: Highway 93 Sula to Lost Trail Pass, Georgetown Lake, and MacDonald Pass.

 

 

Northeastern FloridaCoastal Flood Warnings is in effect through Thursday noon as significant flooding is expected to continue along portions of the St Johns river from Jacksonville southward the Palatka region and its tributaries. Astronomical tides will be around 1 to 3 feet above normal, locally higher in some spots the next few days. Water levels will be slow to recede in the St. Johns River basin.

 

Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected today.

 

International Severe Weather

 

Caribbean / Central / South AmericaWidespread severe weather is not expected.

 

Caribbean and United States – Airports in Caribbean Gradually Reopening Following Hurricane Irma: All airports in the Bahamas have resumed operations as of Sept. 12, although flight cancellations remain widespread. Providenciales International Airport (PLS) in the Turks and Caicos has also reopened, but most flights remain canceled. Most major airports in Cuba have reopened, but Cayo Coco Jardines del Rey Airport (CCC) and Santa Clara Abel Santamaria Airport (SNU) are both scheduled to remain closed until the last week of September due to damage from Irma.

 

Dutch authorities continue to restrict Princess Juliana International Airport (SXM) to relief flights only. Several other airports in the region – including in the US Virgin Islands (STT), British Virgin Islands (EIT), and Anguilla (AXA, SXM) – are also only open for relief flight operations. St. Barthelemy’s Gustaf III Airport (SBH) has reopened, but most flights remain canceled.

 

EMEAFor Europe, today and Thursday – Well not so quiet for the next couple of days

rapidly moving depression passes quickly eastwards across northern Europe, bringing heavy rain and gale force winds to the Low Countries, northern Germany and Denmark. Damaging gusts over 70mph may occur in some areas. Widespread strong winds for central-northern Europe, and feeling cool 15 to 18C. A further pulse of heavy rain spreads from the west across northern France during the day.

 

For Thursday, the slow-moving front lies across central Europe, bringing heavy rain to France, southern Germany and the western Alps. Showers or longer spells of rain for the Low Countries, and feeling cool in strong winds, just 15C.

 

Asia / Pacific RimIndochina Peninsula – Moderate to heavy rains will spread throughout the peninsula over the next couple of days. Flash flooding will be the main threat.

 

Flu Activity http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

 

The Internet Traffic Report: http://www.internettrafficreport.com/

 

The Swinden Group, LLC

One World – One Contact –Many Resources

Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting

Weather Risk Management

Comments are closed.