As of 1500 GMT, Giovanna was located approximately 260 miles east Antananarivo, Madagascar and 140 miles east of Toamasina and is tracking to the west-southwest at 16 mph. The center of Giovanna should make landfall to the south of the port city of Toamasina in approximately 8 to 10 hours.

Current maximum sustained winds are 145 mph with higher gusts making Giovanna a dangerous and potentially catastrophic Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane wind scale. Hurricane force winds extend out 55 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out 220 miles.

The capital city of Antananarivo, with a population of well over 1 million, should be in the storm’s path and while Giovanna will weaken while tracking over Madagascar, Antananarivo could possibly experience destructive winds of greater than 100 mph.

Giovanna will then re-emerge over the Mozambique Channel and re-intensify and eventually strike southern Mozambique in about four days.

Threats and damages – Giovanna will be a destructive storm

Widespread coastal flooding due to the storm surge.

Widespread inland flooding due to torrential rains.

Heavy damage to the infrastructure and will be off-line for weeks.

Travel to be heavily affected for land and air, especially if the storm damages Antananarivo airport. Anticipate the eastern coastal areas of Madagascar to be cut off from Antananarivo.

About The Swinden Group, LLC

The Swinden Group, LLC provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide. Severe Weather Advisories are provided to corporations and business travelers in order for them to prepare for travel or business impacting weather events.

# # #

Contact:
Matt Swinden
The Swinden Group
Phone: 1-303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup

Madagascar – Tropical Cyclone Giovanna: Over the last 12 hours, Giovanna has increased in strengthen and size to become a potentially deadly and destructive category four tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Travelers and Expats in the path of this storm need to evacuate the region to northern or southern Madagascar or plan on being self-sufficient for up to a week or two.

At 0300 PM GMT, the center of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna was located about 425 miles east of Antananarivo and about 325 miles east of Toamasina, Madagascar. Giovanna is moving toward the west-southwest at 16 mph. Giovanna is expected to continue tracking to the west-southwest and the center of the storm is expected to make landfall near or just south of Toamasina on the early morning of Tuesday February 14th.

Giovanna has strengthened over the last 12 hours with maximum sustained winds 145 mph with higher gusts. Rina is a dangerous and potentially deadly category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecasted for Giovanna prior to making landfall with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

Threats & Damages –

Giovanna has the potential of being the Madagascar’s most destructive and catastrophic cyclone in history. Anticipate widespread coastal flooding, widespread damage to the port of city of Toamasina, widespread inland flooding due to torrential rains, major damage to the infrastructure, and major travel disruptions. It will be weeks before the basics of the infrastructure come back on-line.

For the capital city of Antananarivo, Giovanna could pummel the metro area as a strong category 2 or destructive category 3 storm. Expect major widespread damage.

The Swinden Group, LLC
One World – One Contact — Many Sources Globally
Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting
Weather Risk Management

Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Web: www.theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup

Home / Office: 303-679-2727
Mobile: 303-406-3622

Copyright – The Swinden Group, LLC 2012 All Rights Reserved

Toamasina, Madagascar – As of 1500 GMT, Giovanna was located approximately 260 nautical miles north-northeast of La Reunion and is slowly tracking to the west-southwest at 6 mph. As of this advisory, this storm is forecasted to strike with the center of the storm moving onshore near or over Toamasina just after midnight on Tuesday February 14th as a destructive and deadly category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. By comparison, Hurricane Katrina that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005 was a category 3 storm at the time of landfall.

Even though this is less than yesterday’s forecast of a category 4 storm, the Swinden Group, a crisis and weather risk management consulting firm, is still recommending that any travelers or Expats along the central Madagascar coastal areas – including the port city of Toamasina — evacuate the area or be prepared to be self-sufficient for at least a week or more. Tropical storm force winds should begin to batter the coastline in about 18 hours or Monday afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion.

Current maximum sustained are 115 mph with higher gusts making this a category 3 storm and Giovanna should slowly intensify prior to making landfall over Madagascar with winds possibly of 125 mph or more at time of landfall early morning Monday February 14th. Currently hurricane force winds extend out 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out 110 miles. So this is a fairly small, but extremely potent storm.

The capital city of Antananarivo, with a population of well over 1 million, should be in the storm’s path and while the Giovanna will weaken while tracking over Madagascar, Antananarivo should experience hurricane or near hurricane force winds.

Giovanna will then re-emerge over the Mozambique Channel and re-intensify and eventually strike southern Mozambique.

Threats and damages – Giovanna will be a destructive storm

If Giovanna strikes Madagascar as a category 3 storm, this will be on par with the death and destruction from the 1994 Tropical Cyclone Geralda in which the storm followed a similar path. Geralda destroyed 80% of the Toamasina seaport. 40,000 houses were destroyed or damaged. Lines of communications, railways, roads and bridges were brought down by the extreme force of the storm. Giovanna could be worse.

With regards to Giovanna, expect widespread coastal flooding due to the storm surge, widespread inland flooding due to torrential rains and heavy damage to the infrastructure and will be off-line for weeks. Travel to be heavily affected for land and air, especially if the storm damages Antananarivo airport.

About The Swinden Group, LLC

The Swinden Group, LLC provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide. Severe Weather Advisories are provided to corporations and business travelers in order for them to prepare for travel or business impacting weather events.

# # #

Contact:
Matt Swinden
The Swinden Group
Phone: 1-303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup

Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms last hurricane season (2010). (Credit: NOAA)

June 1st marks the beginning of the Atlantic basin hurricane season and NOAA’s hurricane outlook predicts a 65% above normal hurricane season.

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

This is compared to the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Keep in mind this does not predict how many tropical cyclones will make landfall, but merely how many tropical cyclones we can expect.

In the Eastern and Central Pacific

May 15th marked the start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season and unlike the Atlantic hurricane season, the Pacific is forecasted to have a 70% probability of being “below normal”.

Be Prepared

May 22nd through May 28th is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prepared_week.shtml

Hurricane Basics by NOAA

The ingredients for a hurricane include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds aloft. If the right conditions persist long enough, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods we associate with this phenomenon.

Each year, an average of eleven tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Many of these remain over the ocean and never impact the U.S. coastline. Six of these storms become hurricanes each year. In an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the US coastline, killing approximately 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine. Of these, two are typically “major” or “intense” hurricanes (a category 3 or higher storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth’s surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression

An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 kt) or less.

Tropical Storm

An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Hurricane

An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher

Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. A Category 1 storm has the lowest wind speeds, while a Category 5 hurricane has the strongest. These are relative terms, because lower category storms can sometimes inflict greater damage than higher category storms, depending on where they strike and the particular hazards they bring. In fact, tropical storms can also produce significant damage and loss of life, mainly due to flooding.

Watches vs. Warnings

A HURRICANE WATCH issued for your part of the coast indicates the possibility that you could experience hurricane conditions within 48 hours.

This watch should trigger your family or business’s disaster plan, and protective measures should be initiated, especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat, leaving a barrier island, etc.

A HURRICANE WARNING issued for your part of the coast indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 36 hours or less.

Once this warning has been issued, your family or business should be in the process of completing protective actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

About The Swinden Group

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

Stay Safe,

The Swinden Group, LLC
One World – One Contact – Many Resources
Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting /
Weather Risk Management

Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Web: www.theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup

Home / Office: 303-679-2727
Mobile: 303-406-3622

Don Churchill, President of eTravel Technologies commented, “Accessing and deploying Swinden’s content will make a significant contribution to the content all of our e-Travel Alerts products, and with Swinden’s clients being exposed to our services makes this is truly a win-win relationship.”

Matt Swinden, President of the Swinden Group stated. “We are pleased to be partnering with e-Travel Alerts as the information they provide is paramount in keeping the business traveler safe and well informed so that they are able to make informed decisions about their travel itinerary. Combined with the Swinden Group’s Severe Weather Advisories, not only is a globetrotting traveler informed about potential travel risks, but also the travel manager and the corporate security professional are kept informed of potential issues and / or incidents.”

“What started out as a product geared towards the corporate security and business continuity departments of corporations has now expanded to the business traveler,” explains Swinden “e-Travel Alerts is a natural fit with Severe Weather Advisories and our clients who need to keep tabs on travel impacting events.”

About The Swinden Group LLC
The Swinden Group, LLC, through its global strategic vendor network, provides companies and organizations security consulting, executive protection, investigations, and crisis / risk management services. Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service so that corporations and business travelers are better prepared for severe weather events that may impact business operations and travel.

About e-Travel Technologies, Inc
With a 20 year track record, e-Travel Technologies Inc is a recognized provider of travel risk management information services contributing to traveler protection and corporation’s Duty of Care compliance. To date their services are used by Travel Management Companies around the world.

For additional information contact:

e-Travel Technologies Inc
+1-866-319-4847
Info@eTravelTechnologies.com
www.eTravelTechnologies.com

The Swinden Group, LLC
+1-303-406-3622
weather@theswindengroup.com
www.TheSwindenGroup.com