Archive for September, 2014

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 18 August2017, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World SynopsisTS Harvey moves over the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean. A couple of storms will bring t-storms and heavy rains from the central U.S. eastward.  Some stormy weather for central Europe, and heavy rains for parts of Asia.


Travel / Security Issues, etc:


Spain – Heightened Security following Terrorist Incidents in Barcelona, Cambrils: Authorities have arrested two suspects in the wake of a deadly vehicular attack in the Las Ramblas area of Barcelona at around 1650 Aug. 17. The driver of the van used in the attack escaped on foot and is still at large. At least 13 people were killed and 100 others injured in the attack; the number of dead will likely rise. Early reports of a hostage situation in a restaurant on the corner of La Rambla and Carrer Nou de la Rambla in Barcelona following the van attack proved to be false.

Elsewhere in Cambrils a vehicular terror attack injured several civilians early Aug. 18. Preliminary reports had stated that no one was hurt, but this proved to be inaccurate. A group of men tried to drive their vehicle into pedestrians on Avenida Diputacio around 0100; at least six people were either struck or injured when the vehicle overturned. Police responded immediately and shot and killed four of the suspects outside Club Nautico de Cambrils. A fifth man was also shot and taken into custody, but he later died of his injuries. Reports about the suspects wearing suicide belts remain unconfirmed, but police issued public warnings before conducting controlled explosions at the site of the attack during the early morning hours. At least one officer was also injured during the police operation. Officials have declared a three-day mourning period in Catalonia; a moment of silence will be observed in Barcelona’s central square at 1200 Aug. 18.

In a separate incident, at least one suspect knocked down two police officers at a checkpoint on Avenida Diagonal in Barcelona; local media reported that police later shot dead the suspect in the Sant Just Desvern neighborhood, about 10 km (six miles) from where the Barcelona attack occurred. Officials do not believe the two incidents are connected. Authorities in Barcelona cordoned off the area of the attack, as well as Ronda de la Universitat, Placa de Catalunya, and Pelayo. The following Metro stations are closed: Catalunya, Passeig de Gracia, and Universitat. The metro service has returned to normal; however, bus services through the affected area have been rerouted.


United States – Total Solar Eclipse Likely to Cause Transport and Business Disruptions Nationwide: A total solar eclipse will likely lead to localized transport and business disruptions across the US Aug. 21. The eclipse – during which the Earth’s moon will briefly block out the sun – will cast a shadow along a “path of totality” in Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Outside this area, the rest of the US will experience a partial solar eclipse. More than 12 million people live within the path of totality, and an estimated 7.4 million people will travel to locations within this path to experience the solar eclipse, and I’ll be one. State and local governments have been preparing for the event for years; some communities plan to activate emergency operation centers (EOCs) to deal with potential hazards and the influx of tourists.


Tropical Severe Weather –


Eastern Caribbean – Windward Islands – As of this morning, Tropical Storm Harvey was between Barbados and the Windward Islands with minimal tropical storm strength winds at 40 mph. The storm will treck through the Caribbean and will be in Central America early next week.  Current computer models have Harvey remaining at tropical storm strength with heavy rains as the main threat, though it could become a cat 1 hurricane as it approaches Central America.


At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 60.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the north of the center.


Watches and warnings


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Martinique

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent and the Grenadines


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Dominica


Hazards affecting land

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading through the warning area at this time, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today.


RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada.   These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


Discussion – Two of three budding tropical systems in the Atlantic will approach the Caribbean, Central America and the United States in the coming days. From west to east, the systems have been dubbed Tropical Storm Harvey and 92L. The third system is likely to be 93L. Interests in the Caribbean and Central America should closely monitor the tropical Atlantic, particularly shipping, cruise and fishing ventures.

Tropical Storm Harvey to enter Caribbean Sea this weekend

Tropical Storm Harvey developed on Thursday afternoon east of the Windward Islands, becoming the eighth named tropical system of the 2017 Atlantic season. Heavy, gusty thunderstorms from Harvey will affect the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through Friday.

Enough rain can fall on the islands to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Wind gusts can be strong enough to cause minor property damage. Small craft should stay in port on Friday. How much strengthening occurs will determine the intensity of rainfall, winds and seas.

Inhibitive strong winds aloft are diminishing in the path of Harvey, which may allow it to strengthen. Harvey could become a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days. The most likely path of this system is westward across the Caribbean due to strong steering winds this weekend. Harvey may make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Central America on Monday night.

92L may pass north of the Caribbean Sea next week

Steering winds are likely to guide the second area of disturbed weather farther north than Harvey. 92L is projected to pass over or just north of the Leeward Islands this weekend.

Some dry air has become drawn into 92L, which could hinder its development for a time.  If 92L can overcome the dry air, it has a chance at becoming a depression or tropical storm this weekend. A track just north of the islands of the northern Caribbean, especially the mountainous islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, would favor development and strengthening, as opposed to a track right over the islands. In addition to the mountains and dry air, strong winds aloft may work against rapid development.

At this time, 92L represents the greatest potential of all of the systems for approaching the U.S. or its coastal waters next week. Following a wave of non-related thunderstorms this weekend, an uptick in thunderstorms from 92L could reach the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida by Tuesday.

System closest to Africa may remain at sea

The system farthest to the east, and likely to become 93L, will take a west-northwest path the next few days. Ninety-three L may never be a threat to land in the western part of the Atlantic Basin. This system may become a tropical system this weekend and could strengthen significantly if it avoids dry air and strong westerly winds aloft next week.

Batch of thunderstorms to reach South Florida this weekend

An area of heavy thunderstorms that rolled through the British and United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday will continue westward over Hispaniola, Cuba and the Bahamas into Saturday.

While this area of disturbed weather is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression, it will spread drenching thunderstorms into South Florida on Saturday.

Real Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning

Additional batches of thunderstorms will continue to roll westward from Africa in the coming weeks. The next six to eight weeks represent the heart of the hurricane season. As the peak of the hurricane season approaches, on Sept. 10, the likelihood of tropical storm and hurricane formation will increase due to warm water, shrinking dry air and diminishing winds.


North America Severe Weather


US / Canada Synopsis: Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri Valley into the central Plains on Friday. Also, a few strong-to-severe storms are possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Upstate New York and western New England. Storms in these areas will also be capable of producing torrential rainfall that could lead to isolated flash flooding.


    Severe Thunderstorm Outlook for today and tonight – There is an SLIGHT RISK with the development of severe thunderstorms as scattered strong to localized severe gusts capable of wind damage are forecast from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northward into southern New York. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions southwestern Minnesota and northern Missouri.




Discussion – The central United States will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms once again to end the week. Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Kansas City and Springfield, Missouri; Wichita, Kansas; and Oklahoma City, are a few of the larger metro areas that may be affected by adverse weather conditions late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

In addition to damaging winds, hail and flooding downpours, a few of the strongest storms could spin up a tornado or two. Tree damage and power outages could hit some communities hard. Bringing loose outdoor items indoors can prevent them from becoming dangerous projectiles.

The thunderstorms to the north of Interstate 70 are expected to be more widely separated in nature when compared to the storms that blossom farther south. There will likely be a gap between the storms to the north and to the south where little to no rain falls, and there are few disruptions to travel and outdoor plans.

Lingering showers from Friday night’s storms may be ongoing across northern Illinois and Indiana, and around southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas on Saturday morning. These is the potential for feisty thunderstorms to reignite from Ohio to western Pennsylvania later in the afternoon.

The risk of additional rounds of thunderstorms and severe weather over the Central states will not end with the start of the weekend. A batch of heavy, locally severe thunderstorms is likely to ignite near the Kansas and Nebraska border on Saturday night. A more widespread severe weather event is then expected to unfold over South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa on Sunday.


For the East Coast – The same storm responsible for severe weather in the central United States on Thursday will swing into the Northeast on Friday. The storms will get a boost from daytime heating and moisture farther to the east on Friday afternoon.


Flash Flood Watches are in effect from DelMarva to northern New Jersey as the most widespread problem will be due to localized torrential downpours that can bring near-zero visibility and urban flooding.

As the storms approach the major hubs of Philadelphia, New York City, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., airline delays are likely to increase.

Some communities may face fallen trees as well as power surges and outages. It is not out of the question for an isolated tornado to spin up, especially near the Chesapeake Bay region into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Later Friday night, the gusty thunderstorms will evolve into a zone of drenching rain that pushes eastward across New England. A few incidents of flash and urban flooding may follow along with the late-night rain.

By Saturday, the storm should have passed by and most of the region can expect some sunshine. However, a new storm sweeping across the Ohio Valley will need to be monitored for the potential to trigger heavy and gusty thunderstorms from Ohio to western Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon.


Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected today.


International Severe Weather


Caribbean / Central / South America Widespread severe weather is not expected today.


EMEAFor Europe, today and this evening – A cold front passes east across central Europe, bringing heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to northern France and Germany, tending to drift south into the western Alps later in the afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon from the Alps region through southern and central Germany and into western Cech Republic and western Poland.  Heavy rains, hail, dangerous cloud to ground lightning and some damaging winds are possible with the stronger storms. Expect travel delays.


For Saturday – Thundery rain spreads into southern Sweden overnight, and a zone of rain also extends across Poland, the Czech Republic and the Alps. During the daytime, areas of thunderstorms are likely to break out widely across Poland and the Baltic states. Heavy rain spreads north across Sweden.


South Africa – Winter Weather Warnings Remain Across Eastern Areas: The South African Weather Services maintains severe weather warnings in parts of Eastern Cape, Free State, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces through Aug. 18. Heavy snow and rains caused by a winter storm system continued to fall overnight Aug. 17-18. The following warnings remain in effect:


Eastern Cape: snow and heavy rain warnings in the northeastern areas

KwaZulu-Natal: snow warnings for western areas bordering Lesotho and Free State; heavy rain warnings along all coastal areas

Free State: snow and damaging wind warnings for the Maluti a Phofung (Van Reenen) area bordering Lesotho and KwaZulu-Natal; damaging winds warnings in most other areas of the province

Lesotho: snowfall, damaging winds


Asia / Pacific RimChina – Moderate to heavy rain is forecasted. Specifically, parts of southeastern Henan, northeastern Hubei, northern Anhui, and northern Jiangsu will be hit by rainstorm or heavy rainstorm. The above areas will also experience short-term heavy precipitation and thunderstorm gale. In addition, from August 18 to 20, induced by the upper trough and low-level shear line, portions of western Sichuan and eastern Northwest China will be exposed to moderate to heavy rain or rainstorm.

Thailand – More monsoonal rains: During 18-20 Aug, the monsoon trough lies across the North and the Northeast with the strengthened southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea and the Gulf. Abundant rain with isolated heavy rain are likely in many areas of the country. During 21-24 Aug, the southwest monsoon and the monsoon trough weakened over the Andaman Sea and Thailand. Less rain is likely over Thailand while the East, the South, and Bangkok Metropolitan Region remains isolated heavy rain.


Central India – Heavy to very heavy rain at few places with extremely heavy falls very likely at isolated places over Telangana; heavy to very heavy at isolated places over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

For Saturday – Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka; heavy rain at a few places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Vidarbha and Marathawada.


Australia – Severe Weather Warning Issued for Eastern New South Wales – The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for eastern New South Wales. A low-pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea is forecast to bring strong winds over southern eastern and central eastern parts of the state through Aug. 19.


Flu Activity


The Internet Traffic Report:


The Swinden Group, LLC

One World – One Contact –Many Resources

Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting

Weather Risk Management