Archive for September, 2014

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 14 August 2018, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – Two tropical systems will bring heavy rains to parts of China and Japan. Meanwhile, heavy rains are expected for parts of the U.S., Europe, and India.

 

Tropical Severe Weather –

Western Pacific – Japan – Tropical Storm Leepi takes aim at southern Japan and South Korea into Wednesday. The small size of Leepi will limit the radius of its impacts as the storm crosses Kyushu into Wednesday morning. Kyushu will face the heaviest rain and strongest winds, with some downpours and gusty winds lashing eastern Shikoku.

Heavy rain and strong winds will batter eastern Kyushu Tuesday evening before spreading across the remainder of the island overnight. Strong winds will be capable of causing tree damage and power outages while heavy rainfall will increase the risk for flooding and mudslides. Travel disruptions are expected to linger into Wednesday morning before conditions improve during the day on Wednesday across Kyushu.

Gusty winds and downpours will continue across southern and western Shikoku Tuesday night before conditions improve on Wednesday. Local flooding and travel disruptions are the most likely impacts across Shikoku.

Leepi is expected to dramatically weaken as it crosses Kyushu and will likely dissipate by Wednesday night or Thursday morning as it interacts with a larger storm system moving across the Sea of Japan.

Moisture from Leepi will be drawn northward into the storm which will drench parts of southeast South Korea Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Downpours will overspread northern and western Honshu Wednesday night with the heaviest rainfall expected on Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides will be a concern across western and northern Honshu as well as Hokkaido during this time.

A bit of rain will fall across Greater Tokyo Thursday night into Friday morning; however, no flooding or significant impacts to travel are expected.

Elsewhere, a large area of unsettled weather across the southern Ryukyu Islands could develop into a new tropical system and impact the Ryukyu Islands and eastern China later this week.

 

South China Sea – China – Tropical Storm Bebinca will bring several days of heavy rainfall to parts of China and Vietnam this week. The storm, which is currently located between Hainan and Hong Kong in the South China Sea, will slowly track westward from Wednesday through Friday. This track will take the tropical storm across the Leizhou Peninsula and into the Gulf of Tonkin before making a final landfall in northern Vietnam.

Interaction with land is expected to keep Bebinca from gaining strength as it meanders near or over land this week; however, the slow movement of the storm will bring a significant risk for flooding.

Bebinca will bring rough seas which will threaten shipping interests in the region.

Wind damage will be localized and largely limited to tree damage and power outages due to wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph).

The heaviest rainfall through Wednesday night will be across northern Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula where 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is expected with local amounts exceeding 300 mm (12 inches). This magnitude of rainfall will likely result in widespread flooding and travel disruptions across the region.

The coastal region of southeast China from Macau westward through Guangxi province will endure daily downpours that will produce localized flooding and travel delays. Total rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) is expected in these areas.

Improvement is expected across the Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Thursday as Bebinca continues westward and sets its sight on northern Vietnam. The worst of the storm is forecast to batter northern Vietnam, including Hanoi, on Thursday and Friday.

Widespread rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected which will result in a heightened risk for flooding and mudslides and produce significant travel disruption.

Bebinca will dissipate over northern Indochina this weekend; however, additional showers and thunderstorms will occur across northern Vietnam. The heaviest rainfall on Saturday and Sunday will be from northern Laos into Myanmar where localized flooding and mudslides will be possible.

 

North America Severe Weather

 

US / Canada Synopsis: The threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue across portions of the Northeast through Tuesday, while a slow-moving storm system will keep the threat for flooding across parts of the Central U.S. through mid-week. Across the West, elevated fire weather conditions will continue, along with the risk for dry thunderstorms.

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Central U.S. – Flash Flood Watches are in effect for eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through Wednesday evening as multiple rounds of thunderstorms will bring heavy rains.

While many across the Midwest have enjoyed a string of warm and dry days, heavy rain inundating the central Plains will soon overspread the region. A general 1-3 inches of rain is likely in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, but areas hit repeatedly by torrential downpours may receive as much as 4 or 5 inches of rain.

Very dry ground is slower to absorb water, increasing the chance that any heavy storm produces dangerous flash flooding, however. Creek beds and low-lying streets or those with poor drainage will flood quicker than other areas, and residents should exercise extreme caution around flood-prone areas.

On Tuesday, the heaviest rain and storms will focus on areas from central Oklahoma through eastern Kansas and Missouri. By Wednesday, residents of these locations can expect just a couple of lingering showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder as the area of drenching rainfall shifts to cover Missouri, as well as much of Illinois and Indiana.

Wet weather is then expected to overspread the whole of the midwestern U.S. for Thursday and Friday, though the threat of new flooding will lessen. Flight delays into and out of area airports, including O’Hare and Midway in Chicago, could have ripple effects on air travel throughout the nation.

 

Northeastern U.S. – A number of flood related Watches and Warnings remain in effect for parts of Pennsylvania and New York through this evening as more flooding is likely from the latest, slow moving storm to affect the region.

A system is expected to track slowly across the Northeast through Tuesday, promoting widespread wet weather. Communities from Pennsylvania to New Jersey and New York state and southwestern New England should brace for another round of torrential rainfall and flooding. Whether 5 inches of rain falls in as many days or an inch of rain falls in an hour, enough rain is expected to fall to lead to rising rivers and urban and small stream flooding.

Through Tuesday, some places could receive several inches of rain, which would have trouble being absorbed by the already saturated ground. Poor drainage and low-lying areas flood the quickest, so anyone living, working or traveling through urban areas will need to be on the lookout for rapidly-rising water.

 

 

Information on Wildland fireshttps://inciweb.nwcg.gov/

 

Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected.

 

International Severe Weather

 

Caribbean / Central / South America Widespread severe weather is not expected.

 

EMEAFor Europe, today and Wednesday – A cold front tracking through eastern Europe will bring spawn thunderstorms with moderate to isolated heavy rains from central Italy up to eastern Poland though tonight. Quieter weather is expected on Wednesday.

 

Asia / Pacific Rim – China – Heavy rain or rainstorm: Through Wednesday, northern Huanghuai Region, eastern North China, central-southern Northeast China, central Northwest China, eastern Southwest China, western Yunnan, and southern coastal regions of South China will experience heavy rains.

 

Indochina Peninsula – Heavy rains will continue from Vietnam to Myanmar and extend down to the Malay Peninsula and northern Sumatra with isolated flooding as the main threat. 

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India – Monsoonal Rains continue – Monsoon rain triggered deadly flooding across parts of India in recent days and additional flooding is expected this week. Flooding and mudslides from Sunday into Monday claimed at least 19 lives across Himachal Pradesh in northwest India. The most recent flooding deaths brought the season total to at least 774 since June 1, according to the Home Ministry Office.

Efforts were ongoing across much of the state early this week to clear roadways that were closed due to mudslides. All schools were closed on Monday in Shimla and Mandi due to the severe flooding and additional downpours are forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue the risk for flooding and additional mudslides into Wednesday before drier weather settles over the region late in the week.

Rainfall will shift southward in the coming days, bringing the risk for disruptive showers and thunderstorms to New Delhi and the National Capital Region.

Elsewhere, flooding will also be a significant concern along the west coast of India from southern Maharashtra through Kerala. Daily downpours will add to ongoing flooding problems in Kerala were at least 39 people have died from flooding in the past week. Minister of Home Affairs, Rajnath Singh, said the flooding in Kerala is the worst since 1924 as Udukki dam is nearing max capacity. Total rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) will be common across Kerala this week with 300 mm (12 inches) in northern parts of the country.

A third area of concern this week will be from northeast Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha into eastern Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. A slow-moving monsoon low will track northwest across central India this week bringing daily downpours and a heightened risk for flooding, mudslides and travel disruptions. While areas will not receive heavy rainfall each day, the hardest hit areas can expected rainfall in excess of 150 mm (6 inches) on any given day.

Conditions will improve across the region by this weekend; however, a new monsoon low will threaten to bring flooding downpours to parts of northeast India and Bangladesh.

 

New Zealand – Periods of heavy rain about the central North Island. Gale westerlies over the upper North Island as a low over over central New Zealand, bringing rain or showers to many parts of the country, is forecast to move away to the east early Wednesday morning. This Watch is for the possibility of rain approaching warning criteria about south Taranaki, Whanganui, Taihape and parts of Manawatu north of Palmerston North until early Wednesday morning. In addition, strong westerlies associated with this low affecting the upper North Island are expected to ease during early Wednesday morning. This Watch covers the possibility of westerly winds approaching severe gale in exposed parts of Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato and Bay of Plenty west of Te Puke.

 

U.S. State Department Travel Advisories for your intended destination. Click here for a complete list, or see the world at a glance on our color-coded map.

 

Flu Activity http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

 

The Internet Traffic Report: http://www.internettrafficreport.com/

 

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