Archive for September, 2014

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 10 December 2018, 11:00 am EST / 16:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – One storm moves out of the U.S. while another moves through the Pacific Northwest. Some heavy rains for parts of southeastern Asia.


Tropical Severe Weather –

Northern Australia – Gulf of CarpentariaEx-Tropical Cyclone Owen is near Kowanyama and will enter the Gulf of Carpentaria early on Tuesday morning. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen is expected to move steadily westwards during Tuesday and is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down and turn back towards the Queensland coast and may reach category 3 intensity if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Friday is most likely.

Watch Zone

Cape Shield in the Northern Territory, to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.


GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

HEAVY RAINFALL may develop about coastal areas of the Queensland Gulf Country. Heavy rain may also develop about coastal areas of the eastern Top End and Carpentaria District south of Cape Shield on Wednesday if the low takes a more westerly path.



North America Severe Weather


US / Canada Synopsis: The southern storm system from the weekend and now Southeast coastal low will produce one more day of light rain, snow and a mix across the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Meanwhile, it will be a wet start to the week for the Pacific Northwest into the Inter-mountain West, as back to back storm systems will produce rain and mountain snow through Wednesday.


Click here – NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.

Tennessee to the Carolinas and the Virginia – Major Winter Storm: Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will begin to expire for the lower elevations around 11 am, but remain in effect for the mountain regions of the Carolina until around 2 pm.  Plan on hazardous travel conditions.


Pacific Northwest – Winter Storm Watches are in effect for the Cascades of Washington and the northern Rockies of Washington, Idaho and Montana tonight through late Tuesday night. Following Sunday’s rainy, damp and chilly weather in the Pacific Northwest, an even stronger storm system is set to bring heavy rain and copious mountain snow to the region early this week. The next storm system will barrel into the Northwest on tonight and push into the northern Rockies by Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the worst of the impacts in the Northwest coming during the day on Tuesday.

Not only will rain soak the Interstate-5 corridor from Seattle to Portland and snow bury the Cascades, but winds may also be strong enough to cause localized tree damage and power outages. Wind gusts of 40 mph are likely in the entire I-5 corridor from Portland to Salem and Seattle, with gusts up to 45 mph at the coast.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be likely in Seattle and Portland, with up to 3 or 4 inches possible near the Washington coast. Stream and river flooding concerns will ramp up farther north across western parts of Washington, where rainfall amounts are forecast to be highest.

At the very least, motorists will face treacherous travel conditions and have to contend with standing water on interstates and secondary roadways during the Tuesday commute to and from work.

While rain dampens coastal areas, a healthy dose of snow is expected to fall in the Cascades and northern Rockies spanning Monday night to Wednesday. Around a foot of snow is forecast to bury I-90’s Snoqualmie Pass, and a slick covering of snow can even fall on I-5’s Siskiyou Summit in Oregon by Tuesday night. Plan on difficult travel conditions.

Residents of the Northwest will barely have time to catch their breaths behind this system before the next storm comes ashore Wednesday night into Thursday. In fact, the stormy pattern is expected to persist through the weekend and into next week as additional storm systems target the Northwest on an every other day basis. As much as 12 inches of rain and over 4 feet of snow may fall in the hardiest-hit locations by the middle of next week with the stormy weather pattern showing no signs of ending in the near future


Canada – South Coast of B.C. – High winds as the next Pacific system will move onshore.


International Severe Weather


Caribbean / Central / South America Widespread severe weather is not expected.


EMEAFor Europe, today through Tuesday Mostly quiet across Europe, though the Alps region will experience moderate to heavy snows which will cause the usual winter time hazardous travel conditions.


Asia / Pacific RimIndonesia / Malaysia – Moderate to heavy rains will continue across Borneo, Java to Sumatra and far southern Malay Peninsula.  Expect flash flooding.


Southeastern India – Potential storm later this week: An area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Bengal may develop into a tropical cyclone later this week and could impact southern India this weekend. Several days of largely dry weather across southern India into Friday will allow residents of southern India to prepare for potential impacts and evacuations from the storm.

The low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal may strengthen into a tropical depression or cyclonic storm by mid to late week. As it nears the coast of southeast India, regardless of strength, it will likely bring areas of rain and thunderstorms with the risk for flooding and mudslides.

Should it organize into cyclonic storm, the name Phethai would be given to the tropical system.

In this scenario, an area of intense wind and rain would occur near where the storm makes landfall and may spread inland as the storm moves northwestward and weakens. Based on the current forecast, areas from northern Tamil Nadu into southern Andhra Pradesh are most at risk for impacts from a land-falling tropical cyclone this weekend.

While wind damage will likely be confined to areas close to the coast, downpours may spread far inland bringing the risk for localized flooding to much of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Saturday and Sunday.

A few downpours may also reach Orissa and Chhattisgarh, bringing brief travel disruption.

Another concern is that increasing wind around the system is expected to churn up seas across the southern Bay of Bengal. Fisherman in southeast India will have to use extra caution later this week and into the weekend as seas become dangerously rough.

The northeast monsoon has brought lower-than-normal rainfall across much of southern India so far this season, so much of the rainfall will be welcome. However, areas near and just north of the storm’s track will be at risk for dangerous flooding and mudslides.

If this system takes a track far enough to the south, Sri Lanka may also be targeted with heavy rainfall and strong wind; however, this appears less likely at this time. Residents of southern India, including in Chennai and Puducherry, should be alert for rapidly changing conditions late this week and into the weekend. Travel could be delayed, and outdoor activities may be disrupted.


Australia – Queensland – A Flood Watch for the North Tropical Coast and southern Cape York Peninsula River as level rises above the minor flood level are possible across the Flood Watch area early this week. Heavy rainfall associated with ex-tropical cyclone Owen is expected to continue along the North Tropical Coast for the remainder of Monday. The focus of the heaviest rainfall will follow the path of ex-tropical cyclone Owen inland over the next few days.

Localised falls in excess of 300 mm have fallen across parts of the North Tropical Coast during the weekend, which has started to wet catchments. A severe weather warning for heavy rainfall during Monday afternoon is current for areas between Port Douglas and Ingham. Heavy rainfall is expected from Monday in the southern Cape York Peninsula catchments.


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