Archive for September, 2014

Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 25 April 2019, 11:00 am EDT / 15:00 GMT

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – TC Kenneth makes landfall over northern Mozambique as a destructive cyclone. Elsewhere, more t-storms for parts of the U.S. and Asia.


Tropical Severe Weather –

MozambiqueTropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall this morning as a destructive category 4 hurricane. Kenneth is the first tropical cyclone with the equivalent of hurricane strength to strike Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado since modern record-keeping. Kenneth underwent rapid strengthening at midweek with its strength equal to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans just prior to landfall.

The dangerous cyclone made landfall in Cabo Delgado, between Palma and Pemba, during the late afternoon hours of Thursday, local time.

Prior to reaching Mozambique, Kenneth killed three people in the island nation of Comoros on Wednesday night.


Areas near and just inland of this landfall location are facing destructive winds, flooding rainfall and mudslides. The latter two dangers will persist well after the cyclone moves onshore. A storm surge of 2-4 meters (6.5-13 feet) is expected near and just south of where Kenneth makes landfall. This surge, combined with tides and rough surf, can lead to life-threatening flooding.

At least 700,000 people are at risk within the region of Cabo Delgado if this storm makes landfall as forecasted.
Aside from storm damage, the greatest risk will immediately be from flooding due to heavy rains. Rivers within this region of Mozambique may flood, especially as at least one of the dams is already close to full capacity, preventing flood water from being retained. This will make it almost impossible to distribute aid as roads will become impassable.

After making landfall, Kenneth may stall or meander over areas just inland from the coast in Cabo Delgado through this weekend.

While interaction with land will cause the destructive winds accompanying Kenneth to rapidly lessen, torrential rainfall will continue. A flooding disaster can unfold in Cabo Delgado with widespread rainfall totals in excess of 250 mm (10 inches) with local amounts of 1,000 mm (40 inches).

Satellite image showing Kenneth approaching Mozambique on Thursday, April 25, 2019. (World Meteorological Organization)
This is truly a life-threatening situation as the hardest-hit areas will be put underwater. Those needing to be rescued may only be able to be reached by boat or helicopters. Diaca, Muidumbe, Miteda, Narere, Mucojo and Macomia are among the communities facing the devastating flooding. All evacuation orders should be followed. Mudslides can be triggered and endanger those living on hillsides around Cabo Delgado.
Flooding downpours from Kenneth will also graze neighboring southern Tanzania and the Mozambique province of Nampula.

Ahead of the cyclone, Mozambique’s National airline LAM suspended flights between Maputo and Pemba ahead of the cyclone, according to Africa News.

The areas that are most at risk from Kenneth were largely spared from any of former Tropical Cyclone Idai’s destruction in March. Many locations in central Mozambique, including Beira, suffered catastrophic damage. Residents are still trying to rebuild and recover from Tropical Cyclone Idai more than a month after the storm’s landfall.

Prior to reaching the eastern Africa coastline, Kenneth brought heavy rainfall to parts of Madagascar from Monday into Wednesday. Locations from Ambanja and Antisiranana to Andapa and Antalaha had drenching downpours and localized flooding. Rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) were common with 300 mm (12 inches) reported in Sambava.

The cyclone then lashed the island nation of Comoros, killing three people. Several other people sustained injuries, according to Reuters. Winds gusted to 120 km/h (75 mph) at the Hahaya International Airport on Wednesday night. Rainfall totaled 225 mm (8.86 inches). Streets across the island were littered with downed trees and debris from homes. The roofs of some homes were also ripped off. Widespread power outages occurred in the capital of Moroni.


North America Severe Weather


US / Canada Synopsis: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be likely Thursday into Thursday night over the Deep South and northern Gulf Coast. In addition, heavy rain may produce flash flooding of low lying areas. The severe weather and heavy rain threat will shift to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast U.S. on Friday.


NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms across the middle Gulf Coast states as severe thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and tornado risk are expected across the central Gulf Coast region through this evening.

Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi


Canada Eastern Ontario and Quebec – Another significant rainfall Friday. Rain, heavy at times, will move into Eastern Ontario Friday morning and continue into Friday evening. Total rainfall amounts of 20 to 35 millimetres are forecast by Saturday morning. 20 to 40 millimetres of rain is expected along the St. Lawrence Valley between Montreal and Charlevoix and to the south, as well as over the Ottawa Valley. Rainfall amounts could reach as high as 50 millimetres over some areas north of the St. Lawrence River. Combined with the melting of the snow on the ground, this rain is forecast to accelerate the spring freshet process.


International Severe Weather


Caribbean / Central / South America  Widespread severe weather is not expected.

EMEAFor Europe, today through Friday  Widespread severe weather is not expected.


Central AfricaHeavy Rains will continue to bring the threat of flash flooding from Ethiopia and Somalia, down through Kenya, northern Tanzania and westward to the Atlantic coast.


Asia / Pacific RimSouthern ChinaThrough Friday it is predicted that moderate to heavy rain will lash Yili Valley of Xinjiang, eastern and southern South of the Yangtze River Region, and most portions of South China. Rainstorm will pummel northeastern Jiangxi, northwestern Fujian, and southern Zhejiang.



Indonesia – Moderate to heavy rains will return across Borneo, Java to Sumatra.  Current satellite imagery shows very heavy rains over much of Sumatra. Expect flash flooding.


Sri Lanka – Heavy rains will move in from the south and bring flash flooding threat to at least the southern half of the country through Friday.


U.S. State Department Travel Advisories for your intended destination. Click here for a complete list, or see the world at a glance on our color-coded map.


Flu Activity


The Internet Traffic Report:


The Swinden Group, LLC

One World – One Contact –Many Resources

Security / Investigations / Protection / Consulting

Weather Risk Management