Gulf of Mexico– Tropical Depression Bonnie Update – 24 July, 2010 7:00 AM EDT

July 23rd, 2010

Gulf of Mexico – Tropical Depression Bonnie, with winds of 30 mph, weakened to a tropical depression after passing over southern Florida and entering the gulf of Mexico on Friday. It looks like she will continue to fall apart before making landfall along the Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Warnings could be discontinued later this morning.

At 700 am CDT…1200 UTC…the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near about 215 mile (345 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/hr). A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected today with little change in the direction of motion. On this track, the center of Bonnie is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight.

Satellite images and data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Bonnie has become less organized. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to are near 30 mph (50 km/hr)with higher gusts. Strengthening is becoming less likely.

Threats & Damages: Moderate rains are the main threats.

Wind…Tropical storm force winds mainly in squalls could reach portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

Rainfall…Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over portions of southern Louisiana, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and the far western Florida Panhandle with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. Isolated minor flooding is a threat.

Storm surge…Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the right of where the center makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. Isolated minor coastal flooding is a threat.

Watches and Warnings:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Destin Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana…including Lake Pontchartrain

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group, LLC to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

# # #

Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com
Twitter: www.Twitter.com/SwindenGroup

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Tropical Depression #3 forms over Bahamas – Bahamas and Florida under Tropical Storm Warning

July 22nd, 2010

Bahamas – The Swinden Group, LLC is advising its clients through their Severe Weather Advisories that a low pressure system has developed into a tropical depression over the Bahamas and will most likely track towards Florida before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

“We have been tracking this system for the past couple of days and have been advising our clients to be prepared for this system,” says Matthew Swinden, whose firm advises businesses and travelers on severe weather events. “The latest computer models have the system tracking to the northwest north of Cuba and south of the Florida Keys and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico and to the Gulf Coast States.” 

Heavy Rain Maker

“For the most part, this will be a heavy rain maker for parts of the Bahamas, Cuba and southern Florida over the next couple of days, explains Swinden.  “With the main threat being possible life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides for the hills and mountain areas.  Also expect travel delays throughout the region. However when it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it will most likely affect the oil spill cleanup efforts and threaten the Gulf Coast states.”

Latest Information as of 2 pm EDT

A new tropical cyclone formed today over the Bahamas. As of 2 pm EDT (1800 UDT) TD #3 (name will be issued when it grows into a tropical storm), is located about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Nassau or about 400 miles (650 km) east-southeast of Key Largo Florida and is tracking to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph…55 km/hr…with higher gusts. Watches and warnings have been issued for parts of the Bahamas and for southern Florida.

Threats & Damages: For the most part, this will be a heavy rain maker should it remain a tropical storm.

Wind — Winds near tropical storm force are already affecting portions of the southeastern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions will spread over the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate on the Florida coast and Florida Keys within the warning area on Friday. Little or minor structural damage is anticipated.

Rainfall — The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over South Florida with possible isolated maximum amounts of 5 to 6 inches. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected over the central and northwest Bahamas with possible isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches. Expect isolated flooding and mudslides for the mountains and hills sides.

Storm surge — Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above ground level over portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Keys.

Long Term Forecast

TD#3 is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by tomorrow morning and track west-northwest through the Florida Straights, the Keys, and then into the Gulf of Mexico and eventually making landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Early computer models does not have the storm becoming a hurricane at this time, however that may change given this is early in this tropical cyclone’s life cycle.

Watches and Warnings:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Central and northwestern Bahamas

* For the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach southward including the entire Florida Keys and Florida Bay and along the West Coast of Florida northward to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* The East Coast of Florida north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet including Lake Okeechobee.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group, LLC to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

# # #

Contact:

Matthew Swinden

The Swinden Group, LLC

Phone: 303-406-3622                     

Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com

Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com

Twitter: www.Twitter.com/SwindenGroup

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Major Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake– Nicobar Island, Indian Ocean – 19:26 UTC

June 12th, 2010


Synopsis – A major preliminary 7.5m earthquake has occurred of the coast of Nicobar Island in the Indian Ocean at 1:26 am local time or 19:26 UTC. At this time the major threat would be for a tsunami for the Indian Ocean, thus a Tsunami Watch has been issued. It is unknown if there is any damage as of yet.

Expect aftershocks of similar magnitude for the next 48 hours.

Tsunami Watch has been issued for only the Nicobar Island area.

Note – Due to the downward revision of the earthquake magnitude to 7.5 as well as additional analysis of the earthquake, the area of the watch is now reduced to only Nicrobar Island, India. All other regions formerly under a watch are now removed from the watch.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude
7.7
Date-Time
• Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 19:26:50 UTC
• Sunday, June 13, 2010 at 01:26:50 AM at epicenter
Location
7.702°N, 91.975°E

Depth
35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program

Region
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

Distances
150 km (95 miles) W of Mohean, Nicobar Islands, India
440 km (275 miles) WNW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
1155 km (710 miles) SW of BANGKOK, Thailand
2790 km (1730 miles) SE of NEW DELHI, Delhi, India

The Swinden Group, LLC
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Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Web: www.theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup

Home / Office: 303-679-2727
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Update – Tropical Cyclone Phet Skirts along the Oman Coastline

June 3rd, 2010

Arabian Sea off the Coast of Oman – The Swinden Group, LLC through their Severe Weather Advisories, is advising its clients and travelers in Oman and Pakistan to be prepared for Tropical Cyclone Phet as the governments of Oman, Pakistan and India have initiated coastal evacuation.

Over the last 24 hours, Tropical Cyclone Phet has weakened and is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of 1 to 5 and further weakening is expected over the next 24 hours as the storm skirts along the southern Oman coastline. Heavy rains have begun to fall over the eastern coast of Oman as the storm moves closer to the more populated region of Oman.

Phet is currently tracking to the north with an anticipated turn to the northeast and most computer models currently has Phet crossing the mouth of Gulf of Oman eastward and making landfall just north of Karachi, Pakistan approximately June 6th as a tropical storm. However some computer models have the storm tracking further to the northwest over Oman and then turning to the northeast, but the official forecast is for the storm to track along the coast.

At 11:00 am EDT,1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Cyclone Phet was located approximately 225 miles south-southeast of Masqat, Oman and has tracked northward at 09 knots over the past six hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 24 hours and Phet as Phet skirts along the Oman coastline. Hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles while Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles from the center.

Threats & Damages:

“Even though Phet is weakening and will most likely be at tropical storm strength when it reaches Pakistan, it remains a very dangerous storm because of the potential for torrential rains causing widespread flooding for parts of Oman and Pakistan,” explains Matthew Swinden of the Swinden Group, a consulting firm that advises Fortune 500 Companies and government agencies on severe weather event. “Keep in mind that Oman is a desert country and flooding can occur with just a couple of inches of rain and Pakistan will bear the full brunt of the storm when it moves onshore.”

For the most part, this will be a heavy rain event for Oman and eventually for Pakistan with widespread flooding being the main threat causing damage to the infrastructure to include water, power, communications, and road. Expect damage to occur along the coastal highways along with widespread coastal flooding due to storm surge. Travel along these roads and highways maybe interrupted for an extended period of time.

Once the storm reaches the more populated eastern coast of Oman along the Gulf of Oman on June 4th, expect widespread flooding and damage due to heavy rains. At this time, it looks like Sur will be in the path of Phet. Travel in and out of the region will be impacted. It is recommended that travelers and Ex-Pats relocate or be prepared to be self sufficient for up 96 hours.

For Pakistan, again Phet will be a heavy rain maker causing widespread flooding. If Phet makes landfall near Karachi, Pakistan with a population of 15.5 million, there is the possibility of a significant loss of life due to flooding. Expect damage to the infrastructure to include water, power, communications, and roads. Ex-pats / travelers in the Karachi metro area should have a “Plan B” which would be to leave the area or at the very least be prepared to be self sufficient for at least 72 hours or more.

Evacuations for Oman, Pakistan, and India

In preparation of Phet, hotels along the east coast of Oman have been evacuated.

In Pakistan, more than 60,000 people living on Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coastline were evacuated and an emergency declared in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. Thousands of people were moved out from vulnerable villages along the coast in the Sindh province and another half a million could be affected in neighboring Balochistan, if the Phet batters Pakistan.

Along the coastal region of Gujarat, India, over 8,000 people were evacuated from Kandla and Tuna in Kutch district in view of the advancing cyclone.

About the Swinden Group, LLC

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

# # #

Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com
Twitter: www.Twitter.com/SwindenGroup

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Phet Threatens Oman and then Pakistan

June 2nd, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet is expected to strengthen to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale before pummeling parts of Oman.

Arabian Sea off the Coast of Oman – The Swinden Group, LLC through their Severe Weather Advisories, is advising its clients and travelers in Oman to be prepared possibly devastating effects from Tropical Cyclone Phet.

Tropical Cyclone Phet continues to intensify and is now a dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale of 1 to 5 and further intensification is expected over the next 24 hours to a Category 5 storm and will make landfall on the coast of Oman within 36 hours.

Once over Oman, Phet is expected to slow and weaken while tracking to the northeast remaining to the southeast of Masqat. In about 72 hours, Phet should reemerge over the northern Arabian Sea and track towards Pakistan; however it is not expected to re-intensify and should remain at tropical storm level.

At 11:00 am EDT,1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Cyclone Phet was located approximately 560 nm southwest of Karachi, Pakistan or 355 miles southeast of Masqat, Oman and has tracked northwestward at 08 knots over the past six hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours and Phet should to make landfall with winds in excess of 160 mph with gusts up to 195 mph. Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles while Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

Threats & Damages: Fortunately it looks like Phet will be making landfall in a sparsely populated area along the southeastern coast of Oman. However any buildings along Phet’s path when it makes landfall will be destroyed. Expect damage to occur along the coastal highways along with widespread coastal flooding due to storm surge. Travel along these road and highways maybe interrupted for an extended period of time.

Once the storm reaches the more populated eastern coast of Oman along the Gulf of Oman on June 4th, expect widespread flooding and damage due to heavy rains. At this time, it looks like Sur will be in the patch of Phet. Travel in and out of the region will be impacted. It is recommended that travelers and Ex-Pats relocate or be prepared to be self sufficient for up 96 hours.

Wind…Hurricane force winds are expected to sweep across southeastern Oman along Phet’s track. Expect structural damage.

Rainfall…This system will bring torrential rains to most of eastern Oman and cause widespread moderate to severe flooding and flash flooding. Keep in mind that this is a desert country so even an inch or two of rain will trigger flooding.

Storm surge…a storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

About the Swinden Group, LLC

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

# # #

Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com
Twitter: www.Twitter.com/SwindenGroup

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Tropical Storm Agatha Becomes the First Tropical Cyclone for the 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

May 29th, 2010

Tropical Storm Agatha is expected to strengthen while while moving onshore of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador bringing with it torrential rains to the region.

May 29, 2010 – Guatemala – The first tropical cyclone of the eastern Pacific hurricane season is threatening to pummel parts of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains that may trigger life-threatening flooding and landslides. The Swinden Group, a consulting firm that specializes in security and weather risk management, is advising travelers and Ex-Pats in the region to be prepared for storm.

“Tropical Storm Agatha will be a heavy rainmaker for parts of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador with rain showers already moving onshore,” says Matthew Swinden of the Swinden Group. “Because of the slow movement of the storm, up to 10 to 20 inches of rain is expected and possibly 30 inches in some isolated areas, dangerous and possibly life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be the main threats.”

At 800 am PDT…1500 UTC…the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located about 170 miles west southwest of Puerto de San Jose, Guatemala about 270 miles west of San Salvador, El Salvador. Agatha is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

Threats & Damages for parts of Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador

“For the most part heavy rains causing flash flooding and mudslides will be the main threat with this Agatha,” says Swinden. “Interests in southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador should be making final preparations for this storm as heavy rains are already moving onshore ahead of the storm center. Expect travel delays and minor to moderate damage to the infrastructure.”

Wind - Tropical storm-force winds are expected to reach the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico later tonight and Sunday morning making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Rainfall - This system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over extreme southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and much of El Salvador with possible isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Storm surge - A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Watches & Warnings have been issued for from Mexico to the El Salvador – Honduras Border

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Pacific coasts of extreme southeastern Mexico, all of Guatemala, and all of El Salvador from Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico southeastward to the El Salvador-Honduras border.

Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.

The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide.

# # #

Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
Web: www.TheSwindenGroup.com
Email: matt@TheSwidnenGroup.com
Twitter: www.Twitter.com/SwindenGroup

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