Worldwide All Hazards Briefing for 15 November 2018, 11:00 am EST / 16:00 GMT

September 22nd, 2014

World Synopsis – A major winter storm to cause havoc across parts of Central and Eastern U.S. Stormy weather for the Middle East. A tropical cyclone to make landfall over southern India. Heavy rains for tropical Asia.

 

Tropical Severe Weather –

Bay of BengalIndiaTropical Cyclone Gaja Severe Cyclonic Storm Gaja is closing in on making landfall with flooding rain and damaging winds in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu within the next few hours.

Gaja strengthened into a severe cyclonic storm early Thursday afternoon as it barreled toward the coastline of southern Tamil Nadu. Gaja is expected to slam onshore between Vedaranyam and Chidambaram during the early morning hours of Friday (an hour or two after midnight, local time).

The cyclone may be the equivalent of a tropical storm or minimal Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans at landfall. Damaging winds and flooding rain will threaten areas where Gaja blasts onshore. Wind speeds of 80-115 km/h (50-70 mph) are expected near the storm’s center with gusts to 130 km/h (80 mph).

Such winds can damage trees and weak structures, as well as cause power outages. As the winds howl, Gaja will also bring a risk for flooding to the areas in the vicinity of where the cyclone comes onshore. A total of 100-150 mm (4-6 inches) with maximum of 200 mm (8 inches) of rain can lead to widespread flooding issues.

Residents should prepare for road closures, as well as streams and small rivers rising out of their banks and flooding neighboring land and homes. Those living in flood-prone areas may be forced to evacuate their homes.

Coastal flooding may also occur near and north of where the cyclone makes landfall.

The worst of the cyclone is expected to remain south of Chennai, but a shower or thunderstorm can occasionally dampen the city through at least Friday. A heavier burst of rain leading to travel delays cannot be ruled out.

Gaja will weaken quickly as it moves inland across southern India, reducing the risk for damaging winds across western Tamil Nadu or Kerala. While damaging winds will be isolated in these areas, downpours will be common with the risk for flash flooding and mudslides in areas of rugged terrain.

Gaja may still unleash 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain on southern Kerala, mainly from Kochi to Kollam, on Friday.

Gaja will move into the Arabian Sea by Saturday, ending the risk for widespread heavy rainfall in southern India.

Lingering moisture will fuel daily showers and thunderstorms across Tamil Nadu and Kerala through the weekend, disrupting cleanup operations. Isolated downpours can renew any flooding in eastern Tamil Nadu. Downpours can increase across southeast India next week as monsoon rains resume.

There is a risk for heavy rain to overspread eastern Tamil Nadu on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Areas where Gaja leaves the ground saturated will be at a higher danger for new flooding problems.

Elsewhere, dry weather will prevail across northern India into this weekend, leading to continued air quality problems across New Delhi and the National Capital Region.

 

North America Severe Weather

 

US / Canada Synopsis: Elevated to locally critical fire weather threats persist for southern California, before hopefully subsiding on Friday. An early winter storm is producing heavy snow from the Mid MS Valley through the OH Valley and Interior Northeast, potentially significant icing in the south-central Appalachians and heavy rain from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic coast before moving into eastern Canada the next few days.

NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern North Carolina as isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur from late this morning through afternoon over portions of near-coastal eastern North Carolina.

 

 

Central U.S. to New EnglandWinter Storm Warnings, Watches, Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories and Flood Watches are all in effect for the eastern half of the country as a storm will spread locally heavy snow, produce ice and cause travel problems from Arkansas and Mississippi to Michigan and Ohio into Thursday night. The storm is tapping into unusually cold air for the middle of November over the Central states. Temperatures dipped to the freezing mark as far south as central Texas and the Interstate 20 corridor of the lower Mississippi Valley.

The storm has already produced some snow in Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and in a large part of Arkansas as of Wednesday morning. However, the heaviest snow and ice from the storm west of the Appalachians will target areas from eastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky during Wednesday night and Thursday. This area can expect a general 1-4 inches of snow with amounts locally between 6 and 10 inches.

Major cities that are likely to receive enough snow to shovel and plow include St. Louis and Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Cairo and Mt. Vernon, Illinois; Paducah, Kentucky; and Evansville, Indiana.

Accumulating snow is forecast to remain south of Chicago but Gary, Indiana, is likely to receive enough for slippery travel. A couple of inches may fall around Detroit, especially south of the city. Some snow or a wintry mix is likely to coat grassy areas, cars and even road surfaces around Memphis, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; Cincinnati; and Springfield, Missouri; for a time.

Ice accrued on powerlines, trees and other elevated surfaces on Wednesday night, resulting in widespread power outages and property damage in large portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky. More than 240,000 utility customers were without power as daybreak Thursday, according to PowerOutage.com.

There may be enough snow to shovel around Indianapolis as well as Cleveland, Columbus and Dayton, Ohio.

In many areas from Kentucky to Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia and southern Michigan that experience a change to ice and rain, a change back to snow at the end of the storm could bring a quick accumulation from late Thursday to early Friday.

In the wake of the storm, the air will not be tremendously cold but will still run 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below average for the middle of November this weekend. Typical highs range from the middle 40s across the northern tier to the lower 70s along the Gulf coast.

 

For the Northeastern U.S. – Major Winter Storm – Motorists, airline passengers and school districts can expect an early hit from Old Man Winter with snow, ice and rain set to cause disruptions over a large portion of the eastern United States prior to the end of this week. The storm, already producing widespread snow and icy conditions, will strengthen and sweep across the Northeastern states during Thursday and Friday.

Ice storm bringing down power lines in southern Appalachians

The first major punches from the storm will be in the form of freezing rain centered on the Interstate 81 corridor through Thursday morning. On Wednesday night, up to 0.50 inches of ice accrued on trees, powerlines and other elevated surfaces across portions of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, resulting in widespread power outages. This has the potential to be a dangerous and destructive ice storm for the Shenandoah and New River valleys of Virginia.

In terms of property damage and power outages, sleet would be less disruptive, but almost as dangerous to drive on as freezing rain. People living in or traveling through portions of western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, western and central Maryland and part of south-central Pennsylvania can expect dangerous driving and walking conditions.

Icy travel will not be limited to bridges, overpasses and areas that do not receive direct sunlight. Any untreated surface can become slippery. Ice may accrue to 0.50- to 1.0-inch-thick on elevated surfaces, such as trees, vehicles and utility lines. Expect lengthy and widespread power outages.

As of 8 a.m. EST, more than 350,000 utility customers were without power as a result of the storm, according to poweroutage.us. As winds pick up on the tail end and after the storm departs, more trees and power lines are likely to come down.

First snow, ice of the season from DC to NYC and Boston; Worst winterlike storm so far for others

Farther to the northeast, some freezing rain is in store, but the storm is likely to bring heavier sleet and snow or a change to rain. Still power outages and difficult travel are likely from much of northern Maryland to Maine.

For much of the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, this will be the first snow and ice of the season.

Airline passengers and motorists can expect enough snow and ice to create a mess from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore; Philadelphia; Newark, New Jersey; New York City; Hartford, Connecticut; Boston; and Portland, Maine; even though a change to rain and flooding in poor drainage areas is forecast. Expect major delays and flight cancellations.

A general 1-3 inches of snow is forecast over the nearby northern and western suburbs from Washington, D.C., to Boston.

“The duration and amount of snow and sleet will increase farther north and west of the I-95 swath,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

“Since it may be snowing at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour near the time of the change to rain near the coast and a change to sleet inland, there is the potential for much heavier snowfall,” Abrams said.

There may be pockets that receive a heavy buildup of freezing rain and run the risk of power outages. Only where more sleet than freeze rain falls might power outages be limited and localized. Some of these areas at risk include southeastern Pennsylvania, the valleys of northern New Jersey and part of the lower Hudson Valley of New York. The risk is greatest where there still some leaves on the trees and in heavily-wooded areas.

There is the potential for 6-12 inches of snow from western Maryland to northwestern Maine; however, sleet and freezing rain may cut down on accumulations. In some areas, it is possible that 1-2 inches of sleet falls on top of the snow.

From portions of northern Pennsylvania to northern Maine, it may never change to sleet and rain. During late Thursday night to Friday, there is the chance of a burst of snow at the tail end of the storm that reaches some areas that changed to ice and rain.

Rain to soak South, mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England

The storm will not bring snow or ice from Florida to southeastern Virginia. Any wintry mix will be brief from southern Delaware to eastern Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts, thunderstorms are possible. Of these, there is the potential for localized flooding downpours and gusty winds. Farther north, the rain can be heavy enough to cause flooding in poor drainage areas from the Carolinas, eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, Delaware, much of New Jersey, southeastern New York and southeastern New England.

For much of the South, dry air will bring the rain to an end from west to east early on Thursday.

A brief period of gusty onshore winds can cause sporadic power outages, while above-normal tides can cause minor coastal flooding from Virginia to Maine as the storm advances northeastward later Thursday to Thursday night. Where leaves have fallen and block storm drains and gutters, flooding will be made worse. The combination of fallen leaves and rain will make for slippery conditions in lieu of snow.

Break from major storms to follow

In the wake of the storm, the air will not be tremendously cold, but temperatures are forecast to be low enough to prompt bands of lake-effect snow from Friday to Saturday. Only spotty pockets of snow and rain are forecast from this weekend through Wednesday of next week for Thanksgiving travel concerns.

 

Canada British Columbia and Alberta – Heavy Snow: An approaching low pressure system will cause snow to fall over portions of cental B.C. before moving into western and central Alberta today and tonight. Snow will begin near the BC border this morning and spread southeastward through the day. By the time snow ends Friday morning, 10 to 15 cm of snow is expected, although isolated pockets of 20 cm are possible. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop.

 

Eastern Ontario – Moderate Snow: 10 to 15 cm snowfall on the way tonight into Friday. A deepening low pressure system will track northward along the Eastern Seaboard today and Friday. Snow associated with the low will reach Eastern Ontario beginning this evening, then continue through tonight into Friday.

Current indications are that total snowfall amounts will be in the 10 to 15 cm range. The commute this evening may be affected somewhat. However more significant impacts are expected on the Friday morning commute. Motorists should be prepared for poor winter driving conditions. Snow is expected to become light and intermittent by Friday evening.

 

Quebec – Snowfall amounts of approximately 10 centimetres are expected through Friday afternoon. A low pressure system from the United States will affect Southern Quebec beginning Thursday night and into Friday evening. The snow will begin near midnight and will intensify early Friday morning, then spread toward Central Quebec. This snow has the potential to impact the morning commute.

 

The Maritimes – Another storm to affect the Maritimes on Friday. A low pressure system will move up the eastern US seaboard Thursday night and likely track over the province on Friday. Precipitation is expected to begin in the west early Friday morning and spread to Cape Breton by Friday afternoon. Precipitation will begin as snow then transition through ice pellets to rain by Friday evening for much of Nova Scotia. Snow and rain will taper to scattered flurries or showers overnight into Saturday morning. Strong southeast to easterly winds are also expected ahead of the system during the day on Friday.

At this time, Cumberland County and northern parts of Colchester County are under a snowfall warning and are forecast to receive the highest snowfall amounts where up to 15 cm are expected by Friday evening. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in the exact track of the system which will affect total rain and snowfall amounts seen across the province. Keep updated on the latest forecasts as wind or additional snowfall warnings may be required.

 

International Severe Weather

 

Caribbean / Central / South America Widespread severe weather is not expected.

 

EMEAFor Europe, today through Friday While most of Europe will be quiet, a disturbance in the western Med will bring heavy rains to coastal Spain through tonight. Flash flooding and mudslides are at risk along the coastal regions.

 

The Middle EastA pair of storm systems will bring the risk of rain and snow to parts of the Middle East through Friday. One storm will move across Turkey with rain and snow, while another unleashes heavy rain and thunderstorms from Saudi Arabia into Kuwait, Iraq and Iran.

A prolonged snow event is expected to last through the day on Friday across northeastern Turkey, where some higher-elevation locations can expect more than 30 cm (12 inches) of snowfall.

Snowfall of 8-15 cm (3-6 inches) will be possible from Sivas to Erzincan and Erzurum by Friday night, causing travel disruptions. Farther south, heavy rain will fall across the lower elevations of southern Turkey, bringing the risk for flooding and travel disruptions. Locations at risk for flooding through Friday include Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Gaziantep and Batman.

This same storm system will bring daily rainfall to Lebanon, Syria and northern Iraq. While flooding will not be a widespread concern, localized flooding will be possible each day through Friday.

Conditions will improve across eastern Turkey this weekend, while another storm system brings rain to western parts of the country. A second storm system will bring a more widespread risk for flooding from parts of Saudi Arabia into southwestern Iran through Friday.

Thunderstorms will rumble across western and central Saudi Arabia on Thursday, bringing the risk of flash flooding, damaging winds and hail to areas from Mecca to Buraydah and Hafar Al Batin. These storms are expected to remain north of Riyadh.

Farther north and east, the threat will be mainly flooding and mudslides as downpours drench southern Iraq, Kuwait and southwestern Iran. The hardest-hit areas can expect rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) with a maximum of 125 mm (5 inches). This magnitude of rainfall can quickly cause flash flooding capable of washing away automobiles and damaging homes and businesses. Travel will be impacted, and some roadways may be closed for a prolonged period due to rapidly rising floodwaters.

A period of dry weather is forecast across the Arabian Peninsula and Iran this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

Asia / Pacific RimIndonesia / Malaysia – Moderate to heavy rains will continue across Borneo, Java to Sumatra and far southern Malay Peninsula.  Expect flash flooding.

 

U.S. State Department Travel Advisories for your intended destination. Click here for a complete list, or see the world at a glance on our color-coded map.

 

Flu Activity http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

 

The Internet Traffic Report: http://www.internettrafficreport.com/

 

The Swinden Group, LLC

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e-Travel Alerts Partners with The Swinden Group to Keep Travelers Safe and Informed

August 24th, 2010

August 24th, 2010, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada — e-Travel Technologies Inc of Mississauga ON, today announced a reciprocal content agreement with the Swinden Group, LLC of Evergreen, Colorado. Each company will access the other’s travel safety and security content to support and enhance services to their respective customers.

Don Churchill, President of eTravel Technologies commented, “Accessing and deploying Swinden’s content will make a significant contribution to the content all of our e-Travel Alerts products, and with Swinden’s clients being exposed to our services makes this is truly a win-win relationship.”

Matt Swinden, President of the Swinden Group stated. “We are pleased to be partnering with e-Travel Alerts as the information they provide is paramount in keeping the business traveler safe and well informed so that they are able to make informed decisions about their travel itinerary. Combined with the Swinden Group’s Severe Weather Advisories, not only is a globetrotting traveler informed about potential travel risks, but also the travel manager and the corporate security professional are kept informed of potential issues and / or incidents.”

“What started out as a product geared towards the corporate security and business continuity departments of corporations has now expanded to the business traveler,” explains Swinden “e-Travel Alerts is a natural fit with Severe Weather Advisories and our clients who need to keep tabs on travel impacting events.”

About The Swinden Group LLC
The Swinden Group, LLC, through its global strategic vendor network, provides companies and organizations security consulting, executive protection, investigations, and crisis / risk management services. Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service so that corporations and business travelers are better prepared for severe weather events that may impact business operations and travel.

About e-Travel Technologies, Inc
With a 20 year track record, e-Travel Technologies Inc is a recognized provider of travel risk management information services contributing to traveler protection and corporation’s Duty of Care compliance. To date their services are used by Travel Management Companies around the world.

For additional information contact:

e-Travel Technologies Inc
+1-866-319-4847
Info@eTravelTechnologies.com
www.eTravelTechnologies.com

The Swinden Group, LLC
+1-303-406-3622
weather@theswindengroup.com
www.TheSwindenGroup.com