World Synopsis – Severe thunderstorms are on tap for parts of the U.S., Canada and Europe. More heavy rains for parts of Asia and India.
Tropical Severe Weather –
Gulf of Mexico – After more than a month of inactivity in the tropical Atlantic basin, there is concern for development in the northern Gulf of Mexico with potential impacts to residents and visitors later this week. A non-tropical system tracking through and triggering showers and thunderstorms across the South early this week will eventually end up over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico around midweek.
The storm will then sit over the Gulf of Mexico for a few days and may eventually become partially or fully tropical in nature during the time period from late this week into next weekend.
With warmer-than-normal waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico can allow an organized tropical or subtropical system to take shape.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin would be called Barry.
A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, but can have must as much impact in terms of heavy rain, rough seas and strong winds.
One of the keys to whether a depression or storm will form is how close the system tracks to the coast. The longer the system remains over water, the stronger it may become. However, it may stay non-tropical if it sits near land.
Development of the feature will be slow initially. However, once it catches and if the feature remains offshore, it could gain strength at a fast pace.
Since there is a significant chance for the feature to move over open water, it is premature to say that the only threat will be from torrential rain.
The latest trends in steering winds suggest more of drift toward the central and western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Regardless of development, the system may lead to multiple days of showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast this week. Flood dangers can arise in areas that get hit repeatedly by downpours or where a more concentrated band of heavy rain unfolds.
A broad area of moisture alone will cause downpours and localized flooding over parts of the Southeast, including the Florida Peninsula this week event without any tropical depression or storm.
Residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and a heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend. The downpours would spread spread westward, depending on the storm’s eventual development and track.
After the system leaves the Gulf of Mexico, its eventual track will determine whether heavy rain aims for the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley or the southern Appalachians starting this weekend to next week.
AccuWeather’s 2019 predictions have not changed since the initial forecast was released on April 3. Forecasters continue to call for 12 to 14 tropical cyclones this season. Of those, five to seven are predicted to become hurricanes and two to four are predicted to become major hurricanes.
While El Niño conditions may suppress the numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin somewhat this year, all it takes is for one or two hurricanes to strike populated areas and result in great risk to lives and property. This year, AccuWeather will implement its RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes to assist with public safety and understanding, as well as risk of damage should a tropical threat arise.
North America Severe Weather
US / Canada Synopsis: Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds and flooding are possible across portions of the northern and central Plains Monday afternoon and evening. Well above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will continue to result in a risk for wildfires over much of Alaska along with poor air quality from smoke while excessive heat is forecast for the south-central U.S.
NWS Watch Warning Advisory Hazards KMZ requires Google Earth or like KMZ reader.
Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – There is a SLIGHT RISK with the development of severe thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains and extending northward into southern Manitoba as scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible.
Eastern Montana – Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday afternoon for eastern Montana as heavy rainfall is expected tonight and Tuesday. Rainfall could exceed 2 inches in some area. With the ground saturated from recent rain. Runoff from heavy rain has the potential to produce flash flooding.
Maryland / Washington DC metro – Flash Flood Warnings and Watches remain in effect for the next several hours as heavy rains of several inches has caused urban, stream, and street flooding for parts of the region. The slow moving storms are slowly tracking to the south-southeast.
Hawaii – Flash Flood Watch for the Big Island from this evening through late Monday night. Moisture associated with the remnant of Barbara will move over the Big Island tonight, and then remain in place through Monday night before diminishing. With the moisture moving in from the east, the initial threat of heavy rainfall will be over windward areas, spreading to leeward areas on Monday.
Canada – Widespread severe weather is not expected other than noted above for thunderstorms southern Manitoba.
International Severe Weather
Caribbean / Central / South America – Western Colombia – More thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rains will roll in from the Pacific. Flash Flooding and mudslides will be the main threats.
EMEA – For Europe, today through Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms will focus on more of southern Europe, as well as eastern Ukraine on Monday. While the risk will not be as high as on Sunday, a few thunderstorms can still turn severe on Monday. Another round of severe weather may unfold from southern France to northern Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina on Tuesday.
For eastern Spain, strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible today with large hail, gusty winds and heavy rains.
Iran – A magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck southwest Iran on Monday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The earthquake caused widespread damage across southern Iran where pictures and videos posted to social media showed damage to buildings and automobiles. Reports from the state media indicate that one person was killed and at least 24 people have been inured as a result of the quake, according to Xinhua.
Electricity and water supplies have been disrupted across the hardest hit regions. Significant damage was reported in the town of Masjid Soleiman, where the first oil well in Iran was explored, according to the Associated Press.
Iranian state television reported that rescue teams were being deployed to rural areas to assess further damage and need for relief efforts.
The earthquake was centered about 450 km (280 miles) southwest of Iran’s capital, Tehran. Several aftershocks have been recorded. Shaking was felt in Iraq and Kuwait; however, no damage or injures have been reported in either country so far.
Central Africa – Heavy Rains: There has been an uptick in the moderate to heavy thunderstorms from Ethiopia & Somalia and extending to further to the west coast and Ivory Coast. Anticipate flash flooding and transportation disruptions.
Asia / Pacific Rim – Japan- Moderate to heavy rains return later this week: While drier weather will hold through the beginning of the week with only scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day, a round of more widespread rain may spread across southern Japan by the middle of the week.
The heaviest of the rain is expected to fall from Wednesday into Thursday across Shikoku, Kyushu and southern Honshu. Nagasaki, Kochi and Osaka are some communities that may see travel disruptions and potential flooding due to heavy rainfall.
While this round of rain is not expected to be as heavy as rainfall last week, isolated areas could still receive 100-150 mm (4-6 inches) of rain within a short period of time. This will not only cause travel delays but may lead to renewed flash flooding in areas previously impacted by heavy rainfall last week. Kagoshima Prefecture, where the record rainfall occurred a week ago, may see more rainfall this week. Though this week’s rain should not be as extreme as what previously fell.
Southern China – moderate to heavy rain will batter eastern Northwest China, southern Jianghuai Region, South of the Yangtze River Region, northwestern South China, Guizhou, central-southern Chongqing, southern Sichuan, central-northern Yunnan, and southeastern Tibet. Rainstorm (100-180mm) will grip western Zhejiang, northeastern and western Jiangxi, central and eastern Hunan, and northern Guangxi. The maximum rainfall will reach 30-50mm. Scale 4-6 wind will shroud Soutn Xinjiang Basin. (July. 8)
India- ? Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over East Uttar Pradesh; Heavy rainfall at a few places with very heavy rainfall at isolated places over West Uttar Pradesh; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya; heavy rainfall at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Punjab, East Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Odisha and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.
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